Extraction, processing, production and display of geographic data
Hossein Asakereh; Fatemeh Motevali Meydanshah; Leila Ahadi
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Temperature is a significant atmospheric element that manifests climate change, specifically global warming resulting from an increase in greenhouse gas concentration. Atmospheric simulation is a critical tool in studying changes in atmospheric-climatic elements, particularly ...
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Extended Abstract
Introduction
Temperature is a significant atmospheric element that manifests climate change, specifically global warming resulting from an increase in greenhouse gas concentration. Atmospheric simulation is a critical tool in studying changes in atmospheric-climatic elements, particularly temperature.
The most commonly used tool for simulating the responses of the climate to greenhouse gas increases and examining future temperature changes is the use of climate variables simulated by coupled atmosphere-ocean models (AOGCMs). General circulation models (GCMs) are powerful tools aimed at generating climate scenarios. However, GCMs cannot provide effective information on climate simulation at local and regional scales. Therefore, the downscaling method is used to bridge the gap between local and global scales.
The current research aims to simulate maximum temperature using an artificial neural network model that adopts data from the atmospheric general circulation model (HadCM3) under RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 scenarios for the Yazd synoptic station from 2006 to 2095. The independent variable, as the input to the artificial neural network, was selected for statistical downscaling using four statistical criteria: Percentile Reduction, Backward Variable Elimination, Forward Variable Selection, and Stepwise Variable Entry. Finally, the maximum temperature of the Yazd synoptic station for the next century was simulated.
Data and Methodology
The present study aims to investigate the maximum temperature of Yazd's synoptic station in the context of climate change based on valid scenarios until 2095. To achieve this, three sets of data were used: average daily maximum temperature data from Yazd's synoptic station, observed atmospheric data for the period of 1961 to 2005 (NCEP data), and simulated data from 2006 to 2095 based on release RCP scenarios. The NCEP data from 1961 to 2005 included 26 atmospheric variables that will be used as independent or predictor variables.
Modeling, simulating, and forecasting temperature based on nonlinear and chaotic time series is a challenging task. Prior studies have shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) are suitable for simulating and predicting basic processes that are not well known. It is crucial to select the correct input variables intelligently and according to the purpose of the artificial neural network's design for prediction and simulation. Accordingly, in this study, the most suitable atmospheric parameters as the input of the artificial neural network were selected by pre-processing and selecting the atmospheric variables for the base period (1961-2005) to simulate with four statistical criteria (Percentile Reduction, Backward Variable Elimination, Forward Variable Selection, and Stepwise Variable Entry). The resulting mean square error (MSE) obtained from the statistical criteria was compared, and the correlation coefficient and the similarity of the monthly time series trend of the simulated values with the target values were also analyzed. The best network architecture was selected to simulate the maximum temperature of Yazd's synoptic station from 2006 to 2095 under different RCP emission scenarios.
Discussion
The selection of explanatory variables for downscaling was based on four statistical methods: Percentile Reduction, Backward Variable Elimination, Forward Variable Selection, and Stepwise Variable Entry. After analyzing the mean square error (MSE), correlation coefficient, monthly average values of the maximum temperature of Yazd station, and estimated values from 1961 to 2005, the probability density function, cumulative probability function, and monthly time series trend obtained from all four methods, the explanatory variables were selected. These variables include mean sea level pressure, the divergence of 1000 hPa, zonal wind component, zonal wind intensity of 850 and 500 hPa, altitude and vorticity of 500 hPa, average temperature, and relative humidity at a 2 m height.
The structure and architecture of the neural network were designed based on these selected variables. The network consisted of a two-layer feedforward, with a sigmoid transfer function in the hidden layer, a linear function in the output layer, an input layer with eight variables, eight neurons, and the Lunberg-Marquardt training algorithm. This architecture was used to simulate the maximum temperature of Yazd's synoptic station under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios for two periods of 2050-2006 and 2095-2051.
Comparing the monthly average values of RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in the first statistical period (2050-2006) with the base period (1961-2005), the maximum temperature of Yazd station indicates an increase in temperature in winter, spring, and summer, and a decrease in the autumn season under all three RCPs.
Comparing the monthly mean values of RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) of the second period (2051-1995) with measured mean maximum temperature (2005-1961) showed that temperature will increase the most in winter, spring, and summer, similar to the first period of the RCP8.5 scenario. In this scenario, unlike the other scenarios, the increase in temperature is evident in both subperiods for the autumn season. Finally, in the second period (2051-1995), the increase in the average maximum temperature of Yazd station in winter, spring, and summer, and the decrease in the average maximum temperature in autumn will be more significant.
Conclusion
The increase in greenhouse gas concentration resulting from human industrial activities is expected to cause global and regional warming in the future. The current study's findings indicate that the average maximum temperature of Yazd station will rise between 0.4 to 6.9 in winter, 0.2 to 8.1 in spring, and 1.1 to 7.7 in summer from 2006 to 2095. However, a decrease in the maximum temperature between 0.6 and 1.4 is expected in autumn. These results are consistent with those of other researchers.
Ali Erfanzadeh; Mohammad Saadatseresht
Abstract
Extended AbstractIntroductionNowadays, UAV photogrammetry has become one of the most effective methods of collecting spatial data according to the factors time, cost, quality and variety of outputs among terrestrial and aerial mapping technologies. Because the quality of a UAV photogrammetry products ...
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Extended AbstractIntroductionNowadays, UAV photogrammetry has become one of the most effective methods of collecting spatial data according to the factors time, cost, quality and variety of outputs among terrestrial and aerial mapping technologies. Because the quality of a UAV photogrammetry products depends on the network design parameters setting according to the existing conditions and limitations, therefore, awareness of the behavior and impact of network design parameters on the quality of 3D reconstruction to achieve optimal quality of outputs is a very important issue. However, due to the time-consuming and the high cost of doing this study with huge real data, comprehensive research has not yet been conducted to measure the behavior of the effective parameters in network design and 3D reconstruction. There are various parameters include camera field of view, positioning error and imaging tilt in flight navigation, flight altitude and designed ground pixel dimensions, amount of sidelap and overlap images, image observation noise due to image quality, aerial triangulation error, in the process of preparing the map from aerial images, which is known as the most important parameters of UAV photogrammetric network design. In this paper, the simulation method is used to investigate the effect and behavior of the above parameters on the quality of three-dimensional reconstruction. Materials & MethodsIn the proposed method in MATLAB software environment, from a point with known 3D coordinates, using the collinearity equations and the value set for the network design parameters and their standard deviation according to the reality and experience of the expert, the imaging is done in a simulated manner. Then, by applying random and systematic errors on the visual observations and aerial triangulation parameters, the collinearity equations of the photographic observations form the desired point and using the least squares method of error in solving nonlinear equations, three-dimensional reconstruction, and quality are performed, then it has been evaluated by the Monte Carlo method. To achieve the results with high reliability, the quality of three-dimensional reconstruction is evaluated in five modes, respectively, ideal, excellent, good, average and bad, according to the expert opinion in setting the values of each parameter.Results & DiscussionThe results of this study show, most effective parameters in the quality of three-dimensional reconstruction in ideal conditions are camera instability, error of exterior orientation parameters and image quality, respectively, which gradually give way to parameters of flight altitude, imaging coverage and camera field of view in bad conditions. The results of the flight navigation error show, increased imaging platform instability has no significant effect on the average accuracy of 3D reconstruction, however, the accuracy changes in different places increase up to 20% due to the heterogeneity of the coverage and the visibility of different parts of the earth in the video network. The results also show that with increasing geometric instability of the non-metric camera, the accuracy of 3D reconstruction decreases linearly, in this regard, the imaging in bad conditions and the quality of the camera, the slower the reduction speed. It has also been shown that with increasing image observation error, which depends on image quality, the accuracy of 3D reconstruction decreases linearly. The results of the study of aerial triangulation parameters show that the three-dimensional reconstruction error increases linearly with increasing tie point matching error. In addition, as the focal length increases in the fixed flight altitude mode, the horizontal accuracy increases in proportion to the inverse magnification, and as the focal length decreases, the altitude accuracy decreases linearly, in the fixed ground sampling distance (GSD) mode, the horizontal error of 3D reconstruction is slowly reduced to 20%, while the height error increases with increasing height and decreasing the geometric resistance of the network by a factor of half magnification. The results also show that unlike traditional photogrammetry here, with increasing flight altitude, the horizontal and altitude errors of the 3D reconstruction increase linearly. The results of the study of the parameters of sidelap and overlap images show that the sidelap and overlap images can change the surface error up to 10 times and the height error and complete three-dimensional reconstruction up to 5 times. ConclusionThis study, while introducing the effective parameters in three-dimensional reconstruction by UAV photogrammetric method, has investigated the behavior and effect of these parameters on the quality of three-dimensional reconstruction in the simulation environment. This means how the quality of the reconstruction changes with minor changes to each of the parameters from half to twice the standard mode. Therefore, the closer this simulation is to reality, the more practical the results will be. Naturally, this complicates the simulation and increases the computational volume. Although this simulation is not entirely consistent with the actual situation, it can provide a kind of behavioral measurement of the parameters that serves as a complementary research to routine try and error investigations.