@article { author = {Hejazizadeh, Zahra and Ja'farpour, Zeinolabedin and Parvin, Nader}, title = {Prediction of Drought in Lake Orumiyyeh Basin Using SARIMA Models}, journal = {Scientific- Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR)}, volume = {13}, number = {50}, pages = {57-61}, year = {2004}, publisher = {National Geographical Organization}, issn = {2588-3860}, eissn = {2588-3879}, doi = {}, abstract = {Since immemorial past, drought has been one of the dangerous natural disasters for human life. As it is seen in historical texts, this phenomenon has always caused many social-economic changes, such as wars, famine and immigration. In this research, the wet and dry periods of some of meteorological stations of Lake Urmia Basin, located in the northwest of Iran, have been analyzed. For this purpose, first the stations of Urmia, Tabriz, Saqez and Miandoab have been normalized using yearly methods. In other words, the precipitation was turned into a standard score (Z-Score). Then, the intensity of either of dry and wet periods was defined in two classes: weak to average dry (-1.5 +1.5). In addition, the roughly normal period (-0.5 z)، تر ضعیف تا متوسط (+.5+1.5). به علاوه دوره تقریبا نرمال (-.5