Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Mohammad Eskandari ¹
• Mahdi Modiri ²
• Babak Omidvar ³
• Aliasghar Alesheikh ⁴
• Mohammadali Nekooie ⁵
• Ali Alidoosti ⁶

¹ Ph.D student in GIS department of civil engineering surveying, Malek Ashtar University of Technology

² Associate professore, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

³ Associate professore, faculty of environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

⁴ Professor, department of GIS, faculty of geodesy and geomatics engineering K.N. Toosi University of technology, Tehran, Iran

⁵ Assistant professore, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran , Iran

⁶ Researcher, Malek Ashtar University of technology, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Abstract
The earthquake phenomenon is a natural disaster that causes many fatal, financial and environmental damages every year. Iran is extremely vulnerable to earthquakes due to its seismicity and its location on the earthquake belt. Also, a large number of facilities were built before the formulation of earthquake resistant standards and, unfortunately, the quality of construction in some cases in the country is not optimal. Therefore, considering the suspicious behavior of the networks regarding the occurrence of possible earthquakes, the issues of assessing the seismic vulnerability of critical infrastructure are of particular importance. In this paper, a model has been presented in which, first, the risk analysis of the area of interest (based on the two existing attenuation relations for the country) is carried out, which, given the uncertainties involving in the earthquake occurrence (including magnitude of earthquake, focal depth and position of the earthquake epicenter), this operation is randomly selected at each time of the analysis, and after each hazard analysis, the outputs resulting from the earthquake hazard including the maximum acceleration values, the maximum speed and the displacement of the ground are calculated. If the area has a landslide or liquefaction potential, then the outputs resulted from the earth fault risk, including the values of liquefaction and landslide displacements, should be introduced into the model for each feature. Then, seismic vulnerability functions are used which are placed on the model database for both ground shaking hazard and ground failure for the arteries. At the end, based on the existing vulnerability functions, the network damage analysis is dealt with. All these steps are for a single analysis. Therefore, based on the Monte Carlo simulation, all of these operations are repeated 10,000 times to include all uncertainties and failure states, and the outputs in the database are averaged to account for all failure states. For this purpose, due to the large volume of descriptive and spatial data, on the other hand, large spatial analysis of data and the high volume of mathematical equations for repetition of operations, coding in the Visual Studio environment with the C # programming language was done, using the Net Framework and Arc Engine libraries which led to the production of a software system using a database and with spatial analysis and deduction capabilities based on spatial information systems (GIS) that could assess the possible slight, moderate, extensive and complete failure rates of each artery separately in the form of maps and tables for each feature. In this paper, to better illustrate this research, the existing model for the city of Neyshabur was implemented and analyzed.

Keywords

• Spatial Information Systems
• Loss estimation
• Infrastructure
• Earthquake
• Monte Carlo Simulation

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