سازمان جغرافیایی فصلنامه علمی- پژوهشی اطلاعات جغرافیایی « سپهر» 2588-3860 35 137 2026 04 21 Spatial analysis of ecological vulnerability in the Kalybarchay watershed using multi-criteria decision making models تحلیل مکانی آسیب پذیری اکولوژیکی در حوضه آبریز کلیبرچای با استفاده از مدل های تصمیم گیری چند معیاره 97 117 735947 10.22131/sepehr.2026.2074119.3156 FA فریبا کرمی استاد گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران 0000-0002-0021-5680 معصومه رجبی استاد گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران 0009-0003-3073-6297 آیسان رستم پور دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد برنامه ریزی آمایش سرزمین، گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران 0000-0002-0021-5680 Journal Article 2025 10 09 Extended Abstract Introduction With the continuous development of society, human disturbance to the ecosystem is also growing, and the ecological environment is gradually deteriorating. This will seriously affect the sustainable development of human society and the ecological environment on which it depends. Generally, ecological vulnerability is the variability of ecosystem under natural or human factors, and this variability is not conducive to the development of ecosystem and human society. Ecological vulnerability is characterized by weak resistance and low resilience of ecosystems in response to external disturbances, including both natural and anthropogenic drivers, within a specific spatial scale. Spatial assessments of ecological vulnerability help identify areas that are exposed to environmental disturbances or pressures, thereby providing a scientific basis for controlling environmental degradation and promoting regional ecological development. In the assessment of ecological vulnerability, multiple variables—such as climate, topography, land resources, and human activities—are influential. The present study aims to conduct a spatial analysis and zoning of ecological vulnerability in the Kaleybarchay watershed. This watershed, located in East Azerbaijan Province, is one of the key regions for nature tourism and ecotourism. Therefore, assessing its ecological vulnerability is essential for sustainable management and conservation. The watershed covers an area of approximately 1,201 km² on the northern slopes of the Qaradagh (Arasbaran) mountain range. Over 27% of the watershed area is covered by dense, semi-dense, or sparse forests. Due to the sensitivity and fragility of this ecosystem, evaluating the ecological vulnerability of the Kaleybarchay watershed is considered necessary. Materials and Methods To achieve the research objectives, the AHP-Fuzzy model and Critic model, the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the Kaleybarchay watershed, and Landsat 8 OLI satellite imagery were utilized. The criteria (natural and human) and sub-criteria—including elevation, slope, slope aspect, precipitation, temperature, distance from rivers, lithology, soil erosion, vegetation cover, land use, distance from roads, distance from mines and industries, and distance from residential areas—were determined based on theoretical foundations and previous studies using the Delphi technique. Weighting of the layers was performed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model, while the standardization of the layers was conducted through the Fuzzy logic model. The Critic model was used for validation. After integrating the weighted and standardized layers, a zoning map of ecological vulnerability for the Kaleybarchay watershed was produced. Results and Discussion According to the pairwise comparisons in the questionnaire, the average comparative weights of the criteria and sub-criteria related to ecological vulnerability zoning were obtained. Using the results from the Expert Choice software, weights for each criterion were determined. These weights were then applied to the shape file layers of the criteria in ArcGIS, and through map overlay, the final ecological vulnerability map was generated. The results showed that the criterion “distance from industries and mines” had the highest importance with a weight of 0.216, whereas “slope aspect” had the lowest importance with a weight of 0.009. Land-use change was identified as the second most influential factor affecting ecological vulnerability in the Kaleybarchay watershed. Zoning results indicated that approximately 40% of the watershed area exhibited high to very high ecological vulnerability, mainly concentrated in the central parts of the watershed. Meanwhile, about 40% of the area displayed low to very low vulnerability, predominantly located in the northern and southern regions of the basin. Conclusion The findings of this study indicate that human factors play a more significant role in the ecological vulnerability of the Kaleybarchay watershed. Human activities such as the expansion of industries and mines conflict with the ecological capacity of the region and lead to the degradation of environmental quality. Continued expansion of industrial and mining activities would likely increase the level of ecological vulnerability. Moreover, land-use and land-cover changes are among the major contributing factors. Overlaying the vulnerability map with land-use and vegetation cover layers revealed that areas with high and very high vulnerability mostly overlap with sparsely to moderately dense forests, medium rangelands, and agricultural lands. Among the natural factors, lithological units and soil erosion were identified as the most influential variables affecting ecological vulnerability within the watershed. Comparing the results of the two methods confirmed the accuracy of the zoning. Also, the correlation coefficient between the results of the two methods was 0.89%. آسیب‌پذیری اکولوژیکی، تغییرپذیری اکوسیستم تحت تاثیر عوامل انسانی و طبیعی است و این تغییرپذیری برای توسعه اکوسیستم و جامعه بشری مناسب نیست. هدف پژوهش حاضر تحلیل مکانی و پهنه‌بندی آسیب‌پذیری اکولوژیکی حوضه آبریز کلیبرچای است. حوضه آبریز کلیبرچای یکی از مناطق طبیعت‌گردی و مقاصد اکوتوریستی در استان آذربایجان‌شرقی محسوب می شود. به دلیل حساسیت و شکنندگی اکوسیستم این منطقه تحلیل مکانی آسیب‌پذیری اکولوژیکی آن به منظور حفاظت و بهره‌برداری مطلوب ضروری به‌نظر می‌رسد. این حوضه با مساحتی بالغ بر 1201 کیلومترمربع در دامنه‌های شمالی رشته‌کوه قره‌داغ (ارسباران) واقع شده است. در این پژوهش از روش AHP-FUZZY و روش CRITIC استفاده شد. معیارها (انسانی و طبیعی) و زیر معیارها (ارتفاع، شیب، جهت شیب، بارش، دما، فاصله از رودخانه‌ها، لیتولوژی، فرسایش خاک، پوشش گیاهی، کاربری زمین، فاصله از جاده، فاصله از معادن و صنایع و فاصله از مناطق مسکونی) براساس مبانی نظری و پیشینه تحقیق و با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی تعیین شدند. وزن‌دهی لایه‌ها از طریق روش AHP و استانداردسازی لایه‌ها با روش FUZZY انجام ‌شد. پس از تلفیق لایه‌ها، نقشه پهنه‌بندی آسیب‌‌پذیری اکولوژیکی حوضه کلیبرچای ترسیم ‌شد. برای صحت‌سنجی پهنه‌بندی، روش CRITIC به اجرا درآمد و نتایج هر دو روش با هم مقایسه شدند. ضریب همبستگی بین دو روش 0.89 بدست آمد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که معیارهای انسانی اهمیت زیادی در آسیب‌پذیری اکولوژیکی حوضه کلیبرچای دارند. نتایج پهنه‌بندی نیز نشان داد حدود 40 درصد مساحت حوضه مورد مطالعه آسیب‌پذیری زیاد و خیلی زیاد دارند که بخش‌های میانی حوضه را بیشتر در برگرفته اند. پیشنهاد می‌شود از اجرای پروژه‌های عمرانی و توسعه مانند احداث راه‌های ارتباطی، ساخت و سازهای مصنوعی مانند ویلاسازی درمناطق آسیب‌پذیر جلوگیری شود. همچنین مناطق با آسیب‌پذیری اکولوژیکی در اولویت اکتشاف و بهره‌برداری قرار نگیرند.

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