Milad Alizadeh Badresh; Farhad Hosseinali
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Cultivation Pattern is a roadmap that shows which, how much, when, and where crops should be cultivated given the constraints and available resources. Cultivation pattern program determines appropriate crop types in accordance with the climatic condition of the province ...
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Extended Abstract
Introduction
Cultivation Pattern is a roadmap that shows which, how much, when, and where crops should be cultivated given the constraints and available resources. Cultivation pattern program determines appropriate crop types in accordance with the climatic condition of the province and thus ensures the sustainability of agricultural products, food security, and optimal utilization of resources, capabilities and potentials of each region. Review of the related literature indicates that AHP and TOPSIS methods are among the most widely used methods in decision making and prioritization. Moreover, previous studies have shown that AHP method is suitable for qualitative data and TOPSIS method is suitable for quantitative data, whereas both quantitative and qualitative factors are involved in determining the cultivation pattern. Therefore, the present study has utilized a larger number of criteria (nine criteria), and combined AHP and TOPSIS models in an attempt to make use of their strengths and avoid their weaknesses. Linear programming was also used with four scenarios. In one of the scenarios, two lowest ranking crops in TOPSIS method were eliminated. The present study has innovatively utilized these models and a larger number of criteria simultaneously to determine the cultivation pattern. It also has precisely identified the appropriate crop for each plot of land using SWOT tables.
Materials & Methods
The case study was located in Qeyghaj plain in west Azerbaijan province. In accordance with the geographical location and climate, wheat, barley, alfalfa, sugar beet, rapeseed, potato, maize and fodder corn are mostly cultivated in the area which have been considered as alternatives for cultivation in each plot of the present study. The present study has begun with evaluating the slope and aspect of each cultivation plot. Then, crops are ranked and optimal crops are selected based on various criteria and using a combination of AHP and TOPSIS models and different decision matrices. Afterward, the maximum and minimum appropriate volume of crop production is determined using linear programming in accordance with the maximum profit. Finally, the most suitable crops for each land parcel are determined using SWOT tables.
The present study has proposed a multicriteria decision model which includes the strong points of AHP and TOPSIS models and avoids their weaknesses. In order words, relative weights were obtained from AHP pairwise comparisons and also the compatibility index was evaluated using AHP model while crop alternatives were ranked using TOPSIS model. The hierarchical structure included the goal, nine criteria used to evaluate the strategies and eight strategies (options).
Matrices used in pairwise comparisons were all obtained from experts' opinions. These include comparisons made to determine the weight of each criteria to be used in the TOPSIS model, as well as pairwise comparisons made between options which could not be quantitatively compared. Then, the general structure of the hierarchical model was developed in Superdecision software and the final weights, compatibility index of each matrix and quantity of each product were obtained based on each of the indicators. The values were then entered into the TOPSIS model and used to rank the crops, compare different options and select the best crop.
Results and Discussions
In the first step, a slope map was produced for the study area using digital elevation model based on which an aspect map was also produced. In accordance with these maps, the physiological suitability of the study area for the cultivation of eight crop types was evaluated. Results indicate that the study area is physiologically very suitable for cultivation of alfalfa, suitable for wheat, barley and canola and fairly suitable for the other four remaining crops.
Then, pairs were compared in hierarchical analysis using expert opinions and the weights of criteria and crops were obtained. Then, weights were assigned to each alternative (crops) and decision criterion (nine selected criteria) using the TOPSIS model and more appropriate products were selected. A decision matrix was first created in TOPSIS. Some criteria such as economic index were initialized directly in accordance with the available quantitative values whilst the values of some other criteria (such as temperature whose quantitative values cannot be obtained) were initialized using the results of AHP.
In the next steps, a weighted normalized matrix was developed and positive and negative ideals were found. The distance between positive and negative ideals was calculated and then the ideal solutions were obtained. Finally, the score obtained by each alternative or similarity index was calculated. The closer similarity index is to one, the superior that alternative will be. Linear programming is a method in mathematics that finds the minimum or maximum value of a linear function on a polygon. The present study seeks to reach maximum profit under various restrictions such as water restriction, restrictions on area under cultivation and maximum and minimum amount of cultivated crop. Water restriction included all surface and subsurface resources for crop cultivation. Crop coefficients were defined as the need for crop irrigation. Water constraints included the constraints assigned to allocated water in spring, summer, autumn and total amount of allocated water.
Three scenarios were developed with or without the previously mentioned constraints. Then the goal function was changed in accordance with the MOTAD method and another scenario was developed. The scenarios are explained as follows:
Scenario 1 (Without any restrictions on the minimum and maximum crop yield): In this case, the goal was reaching the maximum profit and the restriction included the lowest amount of water consumption, regardless of the requirements in the study area. In this scenario, variables x1 (wheat), x5 (Canola) and x8 (fodder corn) were included in the cultivation pattern. Consequently, farmers' income was maximized and the amount of water consumption was reduced. However, obtained results were not acceptable in accordance with the regional and national policies since cultivation of most crop types will thus be stopped.
Scenario 2 (locally acceptable size and local farming customs and the restrictions assigned by the agriculture office): the present scenario seeks to maximize profit, satisfy requirements of the area and achieve the goals of the agriculture office. All crops are included in the cultivation pattern. Therefore, minimum and maximum cultivation restrictions have been used in addition to water and land restrictions.
Scenario 3 (not cultivating some water-intensive crops): As previously mentioned, Poldasht agriculture office has introduced reduced cultivation of some low yielding crops or even stopping the cultivation of such crop types as one of its main goals. Corn and potato are highly water -intensive with a low yield in the study area and thus gain one of the lowest ranks. Therefore, potato and corn were removed to determine the cultivation pattern of the region in their absence.
Scenario 4 (MOTAD approach): MOTAD is a linear programming approach aiming to maximize the profit whose objective function equals the sum of deviations between total gross income and the expected income based on the average gross income of the sample. Linear programming with MOTAD requires having access to income gained from each crop type in previous years. Restrictions such as fund and manpower restriction must also be considered. The statistical period used in MOTAD approach starts in 2011 and lasts till 2016.
Income values in MOTAD approach lead to a constraint relation. Just as the previous scenarios, water and land constraints are considered in this approach and fertilizers and pesticides restrictions have not been taken into account.
Conclusions
Based on the collected information, available parameters, SWOT analytical model and tables developed for each field, a suitable crop was selected for each farm (parcel). Accordingly, 112.3 hectares was identified as suitable for the cultivation of wheat, 59.9 hectares for barley, 32.1 hectares for alfalfa, 37.6 hectares for sugar beet, 85.7 hectares for Canola, 15.5 hectares for potato, 13.2 hectares for Maize and 63.7 hectares for fodder corn. In this case, the resulting profit equaled 23, 503,410,000 Rials and the water consumption equaled 2,542,293.8 cubic meters which shows 2,052,120,000 Rials increase in profit and 90,770.6 cubic meters decrease in water consumption as compared to the present cultivation pattern.
Comparing the profit and water consumption in each of the five models and the current cultivation pattern, it can be concluded that the pattern obtained from the SWOT analytical model is more feasible since it includes various parameters and particularly farmers' opinions.
Mohammad Zanganeh
Abstract
Abstract
Urban and regional planning is done for development, and natural and man-made hazards are obstacles to development. War is one of those dangers which has always been with mankind and has become more widespread in recent decades by contributing to conflicts in the interests of countries. Therefore, ...
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Abstract
Urban and regional planning is done for development, and natural and man-made hazards are obstacles to development. War is one of those dangers which has always been with mankind and has become more widespread in recent decades by contributing to conflicts in the interests of countries. Therefore, the passive defense as a measure in the pre-crisis phase, with the goal of reducing the vulnerability of infrastructure, should be considered in planning. Due to its proximity to Tehran, Alborz road network, is the link between the capital and the northern and northwestern provinces as well as transit route to the neighboring countries of the Northwest. In addition, the high concentration of population and industry on the sides of the roads will create a threat to the province. Therefore, planning to reduce the vulnerability of this vital infrastructure in times of crisis and maintain its efficiency is of great importance. In the present study, in order to identify areas and roads vulnerable to the threat of war, the vulnerability indicators were first determined and ranked using IHWP method, and the vulnerability maps were prepared in the GIS environment. Then, using the SWOT tool, strategies to reduce the vulnerability of passages were defined and prioritized.
The results of the study indicated that the eastern and central parts of the main east-west axis of the province’s road network will have high vulnerability to war threats, while the most important capabilities and opportunities ahead, are the same axis. Therefore, by completing ongoing and planned projects to create parallel axes as well as bridge reinforcement and displacement of some land uses, it is possible to reduce the vulnerability of the Alborz province’s road network.
Hossein Hatami nejad; Ashraf Azimzadeh Irany
Abstract
Given that cities have the majority of the country's population and are often the economic, political, cultural, social and governance centers in countries, theirreadiness against crises (passive defense) should always be considered by the relevant experts. Organizing the city on the scale of the neighborhood ...
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Given that cities have the majority of the country's population and are often the economic, political, cultural, social and governance centers in countries, theirreadiness against crises (passive defense) should always be considered by the relevant experts. Organizing the city on the scale of the neighborhood (as the smallest and most effective urban unit) based on the requirements of passive defense, in order to deal with the crises (natural and man-made) and minimizing the hazards using geographical techniques and urban planning, are the objectives of this research. Therefore, the sixth district’s neighborhoods of Tehran’s 2nd region were selected as a case study and the results of the research were presented so that the possibility of generalization of similar surveys and studies in other urban areas would be provided. The present research is an applied- type, and the method of the research is normative-analytical. The scientific foundations of this research are based on the concepts of urban crisis management with an emphasis on geography and urban planning knowledge. In this research, after the recognition and evaluation of the present situation, the dimensions of the vulnerability of neighborhoods at the time of the crisis, the strengths and weaknesses, as well as the threats and opportunities of each neighborhood have been investigated with the passive defense approach, and the relevant conclusions have been drawn on this basis. Data collection was done based on library method and field studies, and a comparative method was used to provide the conclusions. In this research, the SWOT analytical technique was used to determine the strengths and weaknesses, threats and opportunities, as well as to provide strategies, policies and suggestions for necessary actions, and ArcGis software was used to display and analyze the descriptive data. The results of the research indicate that the attention to components such as city structure, urban texture, city form, urban land use, and finally the social contributions of residents of each neighborhood, can make it possible to organize urban neighborhoods based on the requirements of passive defense. The results of the research reflect the fact that paying attention to the components such as city structure, city texture, city form, urban land use, and finally the social contributions of the residents of each neighborhood, can make it possible to organize urban neighborhoods based on the requirements of passive defense.
Ali Shamai; Javad Malekan; Parisa Sadeghi
Abstract
Social, cultural, and economic poverty is the most important factorbehind the emergence of suburbanization in cities.Although the suburbanites live in the realm of socioeconomic life of cities, they are not accepted as official citizens in the community. The main objective of this research is to provide ...
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Social, cultural, and economic poverty is the most important factorbehind the emergence of suburbanization in cities.Although the suburbanites live in the realm of socioeconomic life of cities, they are not accepted as official citizens in the community. The main objective of this research is to provide strategies for empowerment of suburbanites inSonghor's town of shohada(of Kermanshah border province). Identifying the capabilities and limitations of suburbanite is very effective in achieving their empowerment strategies. The method of the research is a descriptive – analytical and survey method using Delphi method. The Method of data collecting is library method and interviewing experts and officials of Songor's municipality.QSPM and SWOT techniques have been used to analyze data. The results indicate that Suburban area in terms of the current situation is in a moderate position on the basis of the internal and external evaluation matrix,and in other words, the suburban region has not been able to exploit the strengths and has not taken advantage of the opportunities available and has been unable to escape the factors which cause its weakness and threat. Finally, after analyses done and providing a quantitative strategic planning and prioritization of the strategies,WO5's review strategyi.e holding of a justification workshop for urban managers to implement the empowerment and organization with a final score of 2.55,has become a top priority as the most important strategy. SO5's aggressive strategy i.e the establishment of a special committee for empowerment and organization holding special committee for empowerment and organizing is also in the second priority.
Ali Movahed; Mansur Azizi; Nemat kordeh
Volume 22, Issue 86 , June 2013, , Pages 87-99
Abstract
Urban land use and spatial distribution - its location, is one of the main functions in order to optimize for using urban space. Subject land and how to use it is always the main topic of urban planning And the ultimate fate of the urban development plans and monitoring of land use determines ...
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Urban land use and spatial distribution - its location, is one of the main functions in order to optimize for using urban space. Subject land and how to use it is always the main topic of urban planning And the ultimate fate of the urban development plans and monitoring of land use determines how the intervention And has always been one of the fundamental issues of social -economic and physical form of the urban contemporary category. Core practice of urban planning, land use planning, which not only expresses the purpose of a community is about land use, but also to give guidance for urban development. Nowadays, because of development of cities and the growing imbalance in the distribution of land, urban land use regulation is of considerable importance. Urban land use and spatial distribution - place them one of the most important functions for optimal use of urban space. The main aim of this research is studing the creation and recognition of existing land use of urban land uses , including residential, commercial, medical , religious , etc. Find and compare with the standard capitation rate for each member of the lack of be specified . In this study , using descriptive - analytical and survey the land has been studied and modeled using SWOT strengths and weaknesses of each of these uses have been studied .
