Ebrahim Sharifzadeh Aghdam; Mohammad Ajza Shokouhi
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
It can be argued that among the socially and culturally relevant variables affecting sustainable security and optimal control of border cities, political variables (formulation of the comprehensive plan and other urban plans), physical variables (distance between border ...
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Extended Abstract
Introduction
It can be argued that among the socially and culturally relevant variables affecting sustainable security and optimal control of border cities, political variables (formulation of the comprehensive plan and other urban plans), physical variables (distance between border cities and central or peripheral areas) and legalvariables (adaptingeconomic policies in accordance with themacroeconomic policies of the country by2025) are the basis for developingmatrix of key properties and scenario planning.In this regard, the importance and necessity of the present study lies in the fact that the future border cities research is a process of systematic and calculated effort and a long-term scientific approach toward good urban governance. It seeks to reach a sufficient understanding of strategic research areas, benefit economy of the country and especially border communities through wise management of space and the introduction of related technologiesand offer desirable scenarios for the development of border cities based on the patterns of democratic and ecosystem management.Accordingly, the present study demonstrates a kind of creativity and innovation in the field of strategic planning based on every aspects of sustainable urban development while emphasizing on the prospective and environmental aspects that are an inseparable part of geography and urban planning studies.
Materials & Methods
The present study seeks to answer the main research question which is, what are the key indicators and factors influencing the development analysis of Piranshahr border town?
In this regard, the present study takes advantage of descriptive-analyticaland documentary investigations of strategic planningalong withrelated questionnaires in the framework of Delphi model and software analysis. Based on a consultation with scholars familiar with the status and conditions of the region within the dialectical framework of urban issues, a statistical population of 50, and 23 variables were identified for the present research. The selected variables were classified in 8 general categorizations as the primary variables of the research.Getting output from the Wizards software based on the scores entered into the matrix, the normalized and the standardized matrices were calculated, and the possible scenarios were categorized based on an analysis of the descriptor compatibility. Then, the goals set for strategic planning of Piranshahr, effective factors in strategy development, a competitive map, level of competitiveness in Tamarchinborderand finally challenges and opportunities of each domain were expressed in the framework of the Meta SWOT Strategic Model.
Results & Discussion
Based on experts’ opinions and software output, it can be argued that among the socially and culturally relevant variables affecting sustainable security and optimal control of border cities, political variables (formulation of comprehensive plans and other urban plans), physical variables (distance between border cities and central or peripheral areas) and legalvariables (adaptingeconomic policies in accordance with themacroeconomic policies of the country by2025) are the basis for developingmatrix of key properties and scenario planning.
Finally, the status of key driving forces in cross-border strategic planning of Tamarchinborderand its effects on the development of Piranshahr city over the coming 15 years are explained in the form of three desirable, intermediate and disaster scenarios. Also based on the obtained results, Sairanband border in Bane had the highest score in enhancing the quality of life in border cities and adopting economic policies in accordance with the country’s macroeconomic policies by2025. Thus, Sairanbandis the most important rival of Tamarchin border.
Conclusion
The present study has proposeda desirable model for the development of Piranshahrborder town using a strategic approach toward the sustainability issue in border cities and taking advantage of indexes such as “cultural, human, political, economic, and physical development” indexes. It alsoapplies the pattern of futures studies used in wizard and strategic scenarios. Thus, factors affecting the level of urban development in Piranshahrwere classified based on 5general classes, sub-variables and a 23×23 matrix. So only by putting the indices in the distribution chart, a very favorable situation of the distribution of boundary related variables can be presented. In the context of the above mentioned results and according to the scenario formulation table, it can be concluded that the results of the present study are to a large extent applicable. Moreover, they can be applied for scenario-building and guide management toward the development of border towns within the framework of structural planning.
Hossein Hataminejad; Ahmad Pourahmad; Morteza Nosrati Heshi
Abstract
Introduction Neighborhoods that have once lied at the heart of cities and enjoyed cultural richness, now face a problem called "worn-out and inefficient urban texture". New needs emerged and old urban textures faced physical-spatial defects. On the one hand, physical decay, social and economic life in ...
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Introduction Neighborhoods that have once lied at the heart of cities and enjoyed cultural richness, now face a problem called "worn-out and inefficient urban texture". New needs emerged and old urban textures faced physical-spatial defects. On the one hand, physical decay, social and economic life in problematic and ineffective textures have exacerbated the deterioration of urban life quality and degraded urban ecosystems in old urban textures of Iran. On the other hand, with rapid scientific and technological advancement in the contemporary world, urban planning system has also undergone transformations and the effects of such changes can be challenging for the city progress. Today urban planning, previously based on traditional system, seems to lack the power and the ability to respond to and solve problems of worn-out urban textures. Therefore, by identifying the opportunities and threats of the future of these textures, ‘futures studies’ approach will help us to better utilize future opportunities and prevent the negative consequences of old urban textures as much as possible. Thus, the most important issue in studies focusing on the future of this part of urban context is the consideration of other factors, including human factors (residents, owners, beneficiaries, and stakeholders) and their contribution to the long-term planning process. The general purpose of futures research is to create awareness about the external environment in order to understand the gaps, trends, and developed technologies. In this way, we can improve the environment as much as possible. Materials and Methods The present study sought to identify the key variables in reducing worn-out urban texture and to examine the relationships between these variables and their influence on each other in the time horizon of 2037. Therefore, using environmental scanning technique (reviewing articles and other published resources, interviewing experts and monitoring conferences) and examining related literature, the initial and existing variables (160 variables) were extracted from the worn-out texture of the 9th district (1st area). The dominant process in this research is applied in terms of purpose, and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The nature of data is qualitative. Data were collected from library sources using documentary and survey methods. Since, it is very difficult and even impossible in some cases to manually calculate the cross-impact matrix, complex calculations and data analysis were performed based on the cross-impact analysis method, using Micmac analysis software. Discussion and Results Organizing two consultative workshops with experts and managers of worn-out texture, information and variables were integrated, resulting in 61 variables classified into six sub-categories of economic, social, cultural, managerial, legal and legislative, physical, and political. Thus, in order to extract the main factors affecting the reduction of worn-out textures of the area in the horizon of 2037, we entered each variables using Micmac software. Cross-impact analysis matrix (61*61) was created and the degrees of mutual influencing and impressionability were evaluated and ranked by experts and practitioners. In order to arrive at a reliable coefficient of the data validity, the number of iterations was increased up to 5 times to reach one hundred percent desirability and optimization of the matrix. By analyzing data using the software, research results indicate that key strategic and most influential variables for reducing worn-out texture in the 1st area of 9th district are "changes of the government " (the comingup of the new government every four years), "lack of specific laws regarding worn-out texture and their organization", "balancing and realizing social justice", "weakness of attitudes and knowledge in urban managers" and "establishment of organized and continuous local organizations to encourage residents to participate". Conclusion Based on the research findings, it can be concluded that only two key and strategic variables (i.e. "changes of the government in every four years" and "good urban governance”) in the 1st area of the 9th district of Tehran played a determinant and influential role. These were considered to be the key players in the system. Therefore, adopting a comprehensive and far-reaching approach to the future of worn-out textures seems to be vital and necessary.
