Aliakbar Anabestani; Zahra Anabestani; Ebrahim Akbari
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Determining landscape changes and the impact of urban development requires analyzing land surface changes and identifying appropriate algorithms. And it cannot be ignored that traditional methods for examining land use change and land cover, such as land surveying, are ...
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Extended Abstract
Introduction
Determining landscape changes and the impact of urban development requires analyzing land surface changes and identifying appropriate algorithms. And it cannot be ignored that traditional methods for examining land use change and land cover, such as land surveying, are generally time-consuming and costly and require special skills. In this regard, the advent of remote sensing techniques, GIS has enabled researchers, planners and city managers to have a comprehensive view of land and land use change over time at a lower cost. However, these tools alone cannot describe the main trends and patterns of the city and urban development; Therefore, a combination of land use metrics and development index was proposed, which, along with remote sensing and GIS, lead to more desirable and accurate results. As a result of the present study, with the aim of analyzing the structural changes of the landscape and urban development patterns of Mashhad city using multi-time satellite images during the years 2000, 2010 and 2020 has been done. Also, in this regard, the main research questions are as follows: 1- Which direction will the growth and development of Mashhad city from 2000 to the horizon of 2040? 2- What kind of growth has followed the expansion of Mashhad from 2000 to 2040?
Materials & Methods
The present study is descriptive-analytical in nature. Information was prepared and adjusted through Landsat TM satellite images of 2000 and 2010, OLI sensor for 2020. Before performing the operations related to image processing, radiometric and atmospheric corrections were used using ENVI5.3 software and the FLAASH method was used for atmospheric correction. The images were then categorized using the maximum probability algorithm. In this method, educational samples were used to classify the pixels. Markov chain model in TERSET software was used for prediction on horizons 2030 and 2040. Then the generated maps were entered into FRAHSTATS4.2 software to measure the metrics of the landscape. Also, the Urban Growth Type Outlook Development Index (LEI) was evaluated using GIS software.
Results & Discussion
According to the land use map prepared for a period of 20 years, land related to the city in this period for the city of Mashhad due to population growth and demand for land as a result of urbanization growth in recent decades has the most area changes. So that the area of these lands has increased from 7% in 2000 to 12% in 2020 and this shows a 5% growth in the land area of this land use during this period. Agriculture and gardens from 2000 to 2020 has had an increasing trend 1. Therefore, the area of this user has increased from 11% in 2000 to 17% in 2010 and this shows a 6% growth in the area of this user. But from 2010 to 2020, the area of agricultural use and gardens has been drastically reduced. As a result, the area of this user in 2010 is equal to 17% and for 2020 is equal to 8%, which indicates a 9% decrease in the area of this user. Desert land use has been declining over the period, with a 4% reduction in area. The use of rangelands has not changed much during this period.
The analysis of metrics on the surface of the land for the horizon of 2030 Mashhad showed that the area of this city will not change. The number of spots will decrease, indicating that the shape of the city will become more cohesive over time. The index of the largest spot and the density of the margin will have a decreasing trend, and this indicates that the city will become more cohesive on the horizon of 2030. Landscape shape index will have a decreasing trend. Also, the analysis of metrics on the surface of the land for the horizon of 2040 Mashhad showed that the area of this city will not change. The number of spots will decrease, indicating that the shape of the city will become more cohesive over time. The index of the largest spot and the density of the margin will have a decreasing trend, and this indicates that the city will become more cohesive on the horizon of 2030. Landscape shape index will have a decreasing trend.
Conclusion
In examining the first question based on the growth and development of the city of Mashhad from 2000 to 2040, which direction will it be? According to the maps classified in a period of 20 years and the projected maps for the horizons of 2030 and 2040 for the city of Mashhad, it was determined that the most change is related to the city limits, so that in this period, the constructions and physical growth of the city have been in the northwest direction, and on the other hand, because the constructions are usually done on lands related to gardens and agriculture. In this part of the city, we are witnessing a decrease in agricultural lands and gardens, followed by an increase in urban areas. According to the map of 2020, agricultural lands and gardens in the southeast side still remain and one of the reasons could be the lack of development of the city in this direction. Also, in reviewing the second research question, what kind of growth has followed the expansion of Mashhad from 2000 to 2040? Findings showed that according to the urban development index and based on the numerical value given to the buffer, it was found that the development of Mashhad in the period between 2000 to 2040 is of the type of development from the edge of the city (edge-expansion).
Mohammad Rahim Rahnama; Mehdi Bazargan
Abstract
ExtendedAbstract
Introduction
Walking is one of the most basic methods of transportation in cities. Before the Industrial Revolution, pattern of movements within cities was based on a human scale. But with the onset of Industrial Revolution and the subsequent dominance of modernist thought, the role ...
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ExtendedAbstract
Introduction
Walking is one of the most basic methods of transportation in cities. Before the Industrial Revolution, pattern of movements within cities was based on a human scale. But with the onset of Industrial Revolution and the subsequent dominance of modernist thought, the role and importance of pedestrian zones diminished. Due to the unsatisfactory situation of modern urban planning and its failure, the increased importance given to human development and environmental issues resulted in the introduction of New Urbanism approach. New Urbanism is a response to modernism and the negative effects of suburban expansionin Europe and North America after World War II. In recent years, there have been widespread reactions against the use of motorized vehiclesseeking to revive the issue of increasing walkabilityof cities. With a population of 3057679,Mashhad annually receives 30 million pilgrims and tourists due to the presence of holy shrine of Imam Reza (Peace be Upon Him), which sometimes makes the movement of pedestrians especially around the holy Razavishrine difficult. Furthermore, the holy Razavishrine is located in the central part of the city (Central Business District-CBD) surrounded by a worn-out urban texture and a network of organic passages and thus needs paths with walkability capability. Therefore, the present study intends to identify walkable and human-centered routesin Mashhad using the New Urbanism approach.
Materials and Methods
The present study takes advantage of a descriptive-analytic survey methodology. 32 quantitative and qualitative pedestrian related indices are investigated and 400 questionnairesaredistributedin Mashhad. ArcGIS software is used to analyze the collected data. The study area is Mashhad with an area of around 35187 hectares, a population of 3057679, and a population density of 87 per hectare.
ResultsandDiscussion
Investigating respondents’ age group indicates that 5% of respondents are in the 15-24 year age group, 17% in the age group of 25-34 years, 9% in the age group of 35-44 years, 15.75% in the age group of 45-54 years, 22% in the age group of 55-64 years and 31.25% in the age group of 65 years and more. 32% of the respondents are men and 68% are women.
Surveys show that pedestrians in the western half of Mashhad are more energetic. Public participation is higher in informal settlements of Mashhad. Police records show that crime rates are higher in the suburbs of Mashhad. Regarding hiking culture, the findings show that districts number 1, 8, 9 and 11 ranked highest in the studied indices. The patterns and spatial trends of activities and population attraction centers establishmentin Mashhad show that due to the presence of holy Razavi shrine, most of these activities are located in the central part of the city (CBD), which has the highest potential to attract the population. In fact, the CBD and western areas of Mashhad have the highest economic potential to attract popular activities in Mashhad and thus, the highest number of air pollution sources. The central part of the city (CBD) and west of Mashhad have the highest sources of air pollution. Moreover, the central part of the city (CBD) and the western parts of Mashhad show the highest degree of interconnection in their urban pathways and thus, are more capable of facilitating movement within the city. Per capita green space of Mashhad is 14.26 m2.District number 7 with an area of 2736894 m2 (22.4%) have the mostand Samendistrict with an area of 44736 m2 (0.36%) have the least green space.
Conclusion
Based on 10 principles of New Urbanism, 32 quantitative and qualitative pedestrian related indices were extracted, identifying the paths that canbe used as routesfor pedestrians. For this purpose, 400 questionnaires were distributedin districts of Mashhad. Quantitative and qualitative data were then converted to location-based data and used for spatial analysis (SDA). Finally, combining location-based data, pedestrian routes were identified in Mashhad. Results indicate that based on the New Urbanism indices,district number 8 and Thamenare the first priority, district number11 is the second priority and district number2 is the third priority for pedestrian routes. Kohsangi, Imam Reza (AS) and Moallem-Imamatstreets were also identified as the best pedestrian routes in Mashhad.
Mehdi Bazargan; Mohammad Ajza Shokouhi
Abstract
Introduction Nowadays, theft -especially residential burglary-is considered as one of the most common and frequent crimes in many countries of the world, including Iran. As such, it has become a pervasive and serious problem with various social, economic, and security-related aspects. Investigating ...
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Introduction Nowadays, theft -especially residential burglary-is considered as one of the most common and frequent crimes in many countries of the world, including Iran. As such, it has become a pervasive and serious problem with various social, economic, and security-related aspects. Investigating geographical dimensions of this crime facilitates the process of exploring this phenomenon. Space and its special features play an important and undeniable role in crime commitment, because space has always been considered as one of the most important factors in commitment of financial crimes such as residential burglary. Spatial analysis and geographical investigation of crimes seek to provide a spatial presentation of criminal actions, crime dispersion, and crime hotspots. This type of crime analysis basically aims to provide a model for decreasing crime commitment in urban spaces. Accordingly, the present research seeks tomodel spatial diffusion of residential burglary crimes in MashhadusingHogstrand’s spatial diffusion theory. Materials and methods The present study is performed based on descriptive-analytic and qualitative methods. The research sample includes cases of residential burglary committed in Mashhad in the 2011-2017period. Data analysis was performed using ArcGIS software. Case study area includes Mashhad, with an area of about 35187 hectares, a population of more than 3057679, and a population density of 87 people per hectare. Results and discussion Police reports in Mashhad suggest that the highest crime rates belong to the 2nd and 3thdistricts, and the lowest rates belong toSamen (around Razavi Shrine), the 12th, and 8thdistricts. 70% of crimes in Mashhad are committed in informal settlements including the 2nd, 3th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 10thdistricts. However, only 10.6% of the city area and 29.3% of its population belong to these districts. Furthermore, the highest crime rates have been reported in 2017. In 2011, only two major crime hotspots were observed in Mashahd (in the 2nd and 3thdistricts). Results suggest that crimes have spread from one place to anotherin Mashhad, which indicates a close relationship between crime and distance factor. In other words, proximity to a crime hotspothas resulted in rapid spread of crimes, and due to the short distance, nearby places have been affected more quickly. Informal settlements of Mashhad are located in eastern, northern, and northeastern districts,which contain 99% of crime hotspots. This indicates that spatial autocorrelation of crimes in informal settlements of Mashhad is relatively high, which has led to formation of crime hotspots in these districts. However, moving from marginalized areas towards southern districts of Mashhad (more prosperous regions), spatial correlation of crimes decreases, and lead to formation of 99% of cold spots. Conclusion The present research has investigated the spatial diffusion pattern of crimes in Mashhad in 2011-2017period.To reach this end, crime hotspots were investigated by quantitative methods such as Kernel density, Moran coefficient, and crime hotspot analysis. Results suggest that the highest crime rates are reported in the 2nd and 3thdistricts, while the lowest rates are reported in Samen (around Razavi Shrine), the 12th, and 8th regions. In fact, 70% of crimes in Mashhad are committed in informal settlements including the 2nd, 3th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 10thdistricts. Moreover, statistics indicate that for every100000 people,anaverage of 75/2 cases of crimes have been reported in the 2011-2017period.Results of Moran coefficient for spatial diffusion of crimes indicated the presence of a cluster distribution of crimes in Mashhad. Meanwhile, spatial diffusion pattern of crimes in Mashhad suggests that the first crime hotspots were formed in northern, eastern, and northeastern districtsof Mashhad, and crimes have spread from these to other districts (more central and prosperous regions such as the 8th and 9thdistricts). In fact, investigations suggest that crimes are spreading from informal settlements to other regionsof Mashhad, and acompatible spatial diffusion pattern of crimes exists in this city.
