Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh; Najmeh Neisany Samany; Yaghob Abdali
Abstract
Extended Abstract Introduction There is a huge potential in the usage of renewable energy sources because these natural resources are inexpensive and harmless to the environment. Solar, wind, and geothermal energies are among the renewable energies. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is one of the fastest ...
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Extended Abstract Introduction There is a huge potential in the usage of renewable energy sources because these natural resources are inexpensive and harmless to the environment. Solar, wind, and geothermal energies are among the renewable energies. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is one of the fastest growing renewable energy technologies across the world. Solar energy is a practical and suitable technology, especially in arid areas with high solar energy potential. The first step in using renewable energy in Iran was in 1994, and since then, much attention has been paid to this type of energy in the society and the government. In Iran, 850 million tons of greenhouse gases are produced annually. Consequently, renewable energy sources such as solar energy can have a significant impact on reducing the greenhouse gas emissions. The integration of GIS and MCDA helps the decision maker to perform decision analysis functions such as ranking the options to select a suitable location so that the GIS is used as a powerful and integrated tool for storing, manipulating and analyzing the solar energy criteria. The use of the MCDA method can facilitate the evaluation and selection of the most appropriate location (s), taking into account the key criteria in the decision-making process. In this study, the optimal areas for the construction of the solar power plants have been identified in five highly optimistic, optimistic, moderate, pessimistic, and highly pessimistic levels using the spatial criteria and the OWA model. One of the most prominent features of this research in relation to the other articles is the inclusion of the concept of risk into the solar power plant site selection process to determine the optimum areas for the construction of solar power plants using the OWA model. Materials and methods The primary data used in this study include the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from the Aster satellite data for the extraction of solar radiation and the region slope, the extraction of the mean land surface temperature for 2017 using the Terra Sensor MOD11A1, the preparation of the average map of the vegetation for 2017 using MODRA13A2 Terra sensor, the 1.250000 fault map prepared by the geological organization, the statistics and data of the rainfall prepared by the Meteorological Organization of Chahar mahal-o-Bakhtiari province, shapefile of road network prepared by the Organization of Roads and Urban Development, the climaticshapefile of the country prepared by the Iran Meteorological Organization, the shapefile of urban areas generated by the National Cartographic Center (NCC).The proposed methodology works by employing AHP to obtain the appropriate weights for each criterion, and utilizing OWA to extract suitable locations to varying degrees of risk. Sensitivity analysis for the criteria weights were conducted by virtue of the OAT method. Results and discussion The northern sectors of Razavi Khorasan province are endowed with cold temperatures and cold mountainous climate, which has had a substantial contribution to the increased cloudy and rainy days as well as the relatively extensive vegetation cover in this area. In this light, with respect to all ‘ORness’s, the target areas fall within the ‘very unsuitable’ and ‘unsuitable’ classes for construction of solar power plants. Moreover, the high slope factor in these areas has contributed to high levels of surface radiation, albeit, as the slope criterion is considered a constraint, the target areas are, in fact, not suitable for the construction of solar power plants. Moving southwards, the suitability of the regions, in terms of construction of solar power plants, tends to shift in the positive direction (very suitable class), which is most likely the result of the low rainfall and vegetation cover in conjunction with high surface temperatures in these areas, as opposed to their counterparts in the north. Areas falling within the very suitable class for construction of solar power plants in Razavi Khorasan can be realized by dint of calculating the percentage of area attributed to each class at ORness = 0.5 per city. The findings show that cities located towards the south and southwest of the province contribute to the highest area in the suitable class, while counties in the northern regions have the lowest share of area in the very suitable class. The highest sensitivity in locating suitable areas in Razavi Khorasan province were observed among the factors of slope, road, and urban criteria. Alterations in the weights assigned to these criteria would entail a significantly strong impact on the extent of the very suitable class. This highlights the significance of accurately determining the weights for these three criteria in Razavi Khorasan Province. Based on the findings, the rate of change in weight assigned to the of fault criteria ranges from 0 to 0.2, which in turn causes substantial change in the area of regions in the very suitable class extent. However, setting the criteria weight at between 0.2 and 1 appears to have no significant effects in the area of this class. Conclusion The results of this research indicate that the northern parts of Razavi Khorasan province are highly unsuitable and unsuitable for all of ‘ORness’ values, while a significant extent of the highly suitable class for the construction of solar power plants is comprised of sectors of the southern regions. Areas within the very suitable class corresponding to an ORness=1 comprise 5% of the class, whereas those with an ORness=0 have a 74% share. The three cities of Ferdows, Bardaskan, and Gonabad, had the highest share of the area attributed to the very suitable class (0.8-1), as maintained by a per city analysis of the area for each class. However, the cities of Dergas, Quchan, Mashhad, and Kalat had no share of the areas within the very suitable class. This most probably stems from the high geographic latitudes of said regions, which has engendered unsuitable climatic conditions in these areas. Finally, results from sensitivity analysis of the criteria showed that increases in the weights assigned to the factors of slope, road, and urban criteria, would cause a further increase in the area of the very suitable class. Stated differently, the selection of suitable locations for the establishment of solar power plants is highly sensitive to these criteria. Changes in the weight of the surface temperature criterion had no considerable effect on the area of the very suitable class. Moreover, shifts in the weight allotted to solar radiation and precipitation in the province, ranging from 0 and 0.6, brought about substantial changes in the area of the very suitable class. Whereas, shifts within the 0.6–1 range had no significant effects on the area of the very suitable class.
Yaghob Abdali; Ahmad Pourahmad; Milad Amini; Isaac Khandan
Abstract
Extended Abstract: Introduction: Natural disasters have always been considered to be a great challengefor sustainable development throughout the world. Consequently, the paths to this development through the vulnerability reduction patterns are very important. Therefore, it is particularly important ...
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Extended Abstract: Introduction: Natural disasters have always been considered to be a great challengefor sustainable development throughout the world. Consequently, the paths to this development through the vulnerability reduction patterns are very important. Therefore, it is particularly important to reduce the risks of these disasters and necessary to consider a proper position in the national policy-making of countries in order to provide an appropriate condition for the effective reduction of the risks in different levels. Most of the plans made in the field of earthquake management are limited to the time interval during and after the occurrence of the crisis and less attention is paid to the pre-disaster planning. Among the plans for the risk reduction, resilience can be considered a more accurate and successful plan due to its consideration of social, institutional, economic, and physical aspects of a city. In fact,it aims to reduce the vulnerability of the communities and prepare people to face the risks caused by natural disasters. The management of natural disasters requires understanding their nature, accurate assessments, planning and finally providing proper strategies. Hence, it is very important to explain the relationship between resilience in natural disasters (such as earthquake) and reducetheir impact given the results that it might have and the emphasis of this analysis on the aspect of resilience. Materials & Methods:The present study is an applied study in terms of purpose and is adescriptive survey type in terms of research method. Documentary method based on library studies and survey approach with a questionnaire tool was used to collect the research data. The assessment criteria for the resilience of urban communities were first determined in the present study. Then, a questionnaire was designed and distributed among the residents of Nourabad and Maskan-e Mehr in order to prepare the initial matrix for these criteria. The study population consists of the residents of Nourabad and Maskan-e Mehr of this city. Cochran's formula was used to estimate the sample size. According to the initial results of the census conducted in 2016, the population of Nourabad, including the residents of Maskan-e Mehr, was 66417. Therefore,given this population, the sample size was obtained to be 384 for the city of Nourabad using Cochran’s formula and the sample size for Maskan-e Mehr was obtained to be 500 households with household dimension of 5.5, given the number of households settled in Maskan-e Mehr until the end of 2017. The sample size was estimated to be 340 people for Maskan-e Mehr using Morgan’s table,. The scoring basis of the criteria was based on Likert 5-point scale with1 representing very low, 2 low, 3 medium, 4 high, and 5 very high. Finally, the average point of this questionnaire was considered as the initial matrix for VIKOR model. In the proposed method, the final weight of the criteria was determined based on AHP pair-wise comparison matrix. Finally, the criteria were ranked based on VIKOR technique procedure. In general, the findings of the current research were analyzed through hierarchy analysis and integration of the indices using VIKOR technique. Results & Discussion:In the first step, the raw data of each criterion associated with the resilience of Nourabad County and Maskan-e Mehr, which were extracted from the questionnaire, were used and the decision-making matrix was created. In the second step, Equation (1) was used to obtain the weight normalization matrix for Nourabad and Maskan-e Mehr. In the third step, AHP method was used for the weighting of the normalized matrix and determining the weight of the indices. The weights of the proposed indices were determined by the residents of Nourabad County and Maskan-e Mehr and were calculated using the AHP method in Excel 2013 software and were assigned to each index. After determining the weight of the criteria, the values of the normalized matrix for each option was multiplied by the weight of the criteria and consequently, the weighted normalized matrix was obtained. In order to determine the best and worst values for the criteria, equations (2) and (3) i.e. determining the positive and negative ideal points were used. Equations (4) and (5) were used to calculate the distance of the options from the ideal solution. Finally, VIKOR index (Qi) was used to rate the resilience of Nourabad County and Maskan-e Mehr based on the distance from the ideal solution. Generally, the views of the residents of Nourabad and Maskan-e Mehr were combined through VIKOR method to determine the value and importance of the criteria and the final weights of the criteria were determined using the AHP method. Applying the obtained weight on the initial values of the criteria and combining the weight indices, Nourabad County and Maskan-e Mehr were prioritized in terms of resilience. Conclusion:The results obtained from VIKOR technique showed that this method, as one of the multi-criteria decision-making method, has capabilities including multi-attribute utility theory or non-ranking methods. On this basis and after calculating the weights through hierarchy analysis process and using VIKOR technique, the difference in the resilience of Nourabad County and Nourabad Maskan-e Mehr was determined. Based on the calculations and the associated indices, Nourabad County has the highest resilience level with S=0.763, R=0.49, and Q=0.966, whilethe Maskan-e Mehr of this city has the lowest resilience with indices S=0.666, R=0.272, and Q=0.626. Given the Q index, Nourabad County (pre-created communities) has a more favorable condition in terms of resilience against natural disasters (earthquakes) compared to the Maskan-e Mehr of this city (planned communities) in social, institutional, economic, and physical aspects.
Hossein Hataminejad; Yaghob Abdali; Sara Allah Gholipour
Abstract
Abstract[1] Today, following the rapid changes in cities, part of urban texture has failed to establish a proper connection with its environment and servicing to the users due to deterioration and inefficiencies. The existence of a widespread worn texture is one of the most important challenges facing ...
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Abstract[1] Today, following the rapid changes in cities, part of urban texture has failed to establish a proper connection with its environment and servicing to the users due to deterioration and inefficiencies. The existence of a widespread worn texture is one of the most important challenges facing urban managers, urban planners and architects, because the lack of attention to these structures causes the decline of city and its heterogeneous development and the creation of new towns on the edge of the old city. Due to the fact that a significant part of the problems of Ahwaz city has appeared in district 1 of the city, it was considered as the study area, and the central part was studied due to the excessive wear of the texture and the severe deterioration process. The present research is an applied-developmental research in terms of objectives, and a descriptive-analytical one in terms of methodology based on library studies and field investigations. In order to achieve the research goals, the building Structure Indexes, material, number of floors and building age were extracted. Regression tools were used to explore pattern trends, and spatial autocorrelation method existing in Geoda software was used to weigh the layers in spatial data. To examine the vulnerability of worn out texture by using Anselin local Morans method, the cluster & outlier analysis tool from the tool set available in Spatial Statistics Tools relating to the ArcGIS Software was used. The results of this study indicate that 45.83 percent of the surface area is in the range of medium to high vulnerability, suggesting that a large part of the worn out texture in the central area of Ahwaz is somehow in need of passive defense planning. [1] - به دلیل کیفیت نامناسب ترجمه (چکیده مبسوط انگلیسیِ دریافتی) نشریه، به ناچار اقدام به ترجمه مجدد متن مختصر چکیده فارسی و انتشار آن به جای چکیده مبسوط انگلیسی نموده است.
