Mohsen Abbasnia; Taqi Tavousi; Mahmood Khosravi; Toros Hossein
Abstract
Recognizing and evaluating the climate changes in the coming decades is absolutely necessary for the purpose of appropriate environmental planning in order to adapt and mitigate its effects. In this research, the SDSM model was successfully calibrated and validated (1981-2010) tocomparatively analyze ...
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Recognizing and evaluating the climate changes in the coming decades is absolutely necessary for the purpose of appropriate environmental planning in order to adapt and mitigate its effects. In this research, the SDSM model was successfully calibrated and validated (1981-2010) tocomparatively analyze and explore the future maximum daily temperature variations over Iran forthe two future periods of (2041-70 and 2071-99) and based on the output of two general circulation models of atmosphere, namely, Hadcm3 and CGCM3 under the existing emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, B2), relative to the baseline period of 1981-2010. In other words, with regard to the uncertainty for the maximum daily temperature of the future data, downscaling was performed in 7 synoptic stations as the climatic representatives of Iran. Analysis of the output uncertainty showed that CGCM3 model under the B1 scenario among all different models-scenarios has had the best performance in simulating the future temperature. Also, the findings of the research on the studied stations indicate that the temperature in Iran in the middle and final decades of the 21st century increases in averagebetween 1 to 2 degrees Celsius, which based on different scenarios of the Hadcm3 model, this temperature increase has been higher compared to the CGCM3 model. In terms of spatial dispersion of the changes in the GIS environment based on the output of all scenario-models, the lowest temperature increase was observed at Bandar Abbas station located on the south lowland coast of Iran, and on the contrary, the temperature rise reaches the maximumat the Tabriz station located onthe northern latitudes and highland and mountainous regions of Iran. In total, the important and effective factors in the future changes of Iran's temperature can be classified into three groups: factors of altitude, latitude and atmospheric humidity, because, based on all the outputs of model-scenarios, the stations located on the northern latitude elevations of Iran will experience the highest temperature rise compared to the stations located on low-altitude and adjacent to the southern coast of Iran.
Mir Najaf Mousavi; Mahdi Modiri
Abstract
Development plans are the most important mechanism of government for the realization of justice in society. For this reason, focusing on ecological, economic, physical, social and cultural justice in programming and setting it within the framework of Islamic justice leads to the formation of an equitable ...
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Development plans are the most important mechanism of government for the realization of justice in society. For this reason, focusing on ecological, economic, physical, social and cultural justice in programming and setting it within the framework of Islamic justice leads to the formation of an equitable society and the balanced promotion and progress in all dimensions, areas, strata and various geographical regions of the country. In this regard, land use planning programs are considered as important framework forthe balanced development of the society in all aspects and organizing regional disparities. The purpose of this research is to prioritize the indices of Islamic-Iranian justice in realizing land use planning and balanced development in Iran. The type of research is applied-fundamental, and the applied method is descriptive-analytical. Evaluation Indicators of Islamic-Iranian justice are 35 ecological, physical, economic, social, and cultural justice indexes. The statistical population is 31 provinces of the country. The data collection tool is the study of documents and information of general population and housing censuses in various indicators.Network analysis model and structural equation modeling were used to analyze the data.. The results of the network analysis model show that economic justice indexes with the highest value of 0.282have the greatest role in regional inequalities among the provinces of the country, because in most of the indicators studied, there are differences in terms of wealth and income distribution, the spread of poverty, the income of households per capita, which lead to the lack of justice realization in the society. Also, the analytical findings of structural equation modeling show that the components of economic justice in different regions of the country are very different. Based on the estimated standardized coefficients of the structural model of the research, the level of significance is equal to 0.079 which indicates the effects of economic factorson regional inequalities in the country with a direct and positive coefficient of 0.86 (9.51). It can be said that these inequalities are due to disregarding the balance in the country, and imbalances areevident in resources, activities, facilities, population, services or accumulation in some population areas including metropolises which arein contradiction with the Islamic justice and fair distribution of services and facilities and leads to questioning social justice. Finally, strategies for organizing regional inequalities within the framework of Islamic justice and the realization of territorial justice have been presented.
AhmadReza Ghasemi; Foruh Sadat Sayedi
Abstract
Wind is one of the main elements in the climate of each region,and its changes can affect phenomena such as dust storms and the severity of evapotranspiration.The declining trends of surface windreported by previous studies are generally small, but it is still important to assess the distribution of ...
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Wind is one of the main elements in the climate of each region,and its changes can affect phenomena such as dust storms and the severity of evapotranspiration.The declining trends of surface windreported by previous studies are generally small, but it is still important to assess the distribution of the trend of wind speed at the continental to global scale in order to betterunderstand the causes of the trend. This research was carried out aiming to predict wind speed in Iran by 2020 with the Holt-Winters model and using data from a 50-year statistical period (1961-2010). The results showed that this model has the ability to predict wind speed in most parts of the country. The values of the coefficient of explanation of this model varied in 34 stations under survey from 0.39 in Abadan to 80.0 in Babolsar, and the error values in most of these stations were acceptable. The results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test used to evaluate the normalized residuals of model showed that the model residuals are normal in most of the stations that show the suitability of the model to estimate and predict the wind speed in Iran.The results showed that this model has also simulated the wind speed extreme values in most stations as well. The results of the Holt-Winters model to predict wind speed by 2020, indicate that wind speed in the Eastern half of the country as well as the southern slopes of the Alborz, which have dry and semi-arid climates, will increase by 2020, while the Western half, Southwestern and central regions of the country will experience a decreasing trend of wind speed. The maximum amount of wind speed increase will be at Gorgan station by 2020 with a value of 1.8 meters per second, and themaximum rate of wind speed reduction will occur in southwest stations of the country, so that in the Abadan station, wind speed will decrease from 48.6 m / s to 31.8 m / s by 2020.In other words, we can say that the wind speed in most arid and semiarid regions of the country will increasein the future, while moderate and mountainous areas in western parts of the country will experience a decreasing wind speed.
Esmaeil Nasrabadi
Abstract
Analyzing the changes in the characteristics of daily precipitationis very important in water resources planning and cultivation patterns. In this research, the changes of the most fitting frequency distribution and its parameters over time are investigated. To this end,thenetworked daily precipitation ...
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Analyzing the changes in the characteristics of daily precipitationis very important in water resources planning and cultivation patterns. In this research, the changes of the most fitting frequency distribution and its parameters over time are investigated. To this end,thenetworked daily precipitation data of the Middle East Aphroditeprecipitation database with a latitude and longitude of 0.25, 0.25 degreeswere used.The daily precipitation data of this database in Iran, during the period of22.03.1951 to 20.03.2007 (20453 days) was extracted using Grads software. To track the changes over time, the data was divided into two 28-year periods. The precipitation data of the first period from 22.03.1951 to 20.03.1979 was placed in an array with a dimension of 10226*2491 and the data of the second periodfrom 21.03.1979 to 20.03.2007 was placedin an array with a dimension of 10227*2491(the rows and columns represent the number of days and cells respectively).The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Goodness-of-Fit test was used to identify the most fitting distribution of rainy days. The normal and gamma type distribution functions onindividual cells of the precipitation were fitted by programming in Matlab software environment. The theoretical two- parameter and exponential gamma distribution function has been able to attain the required statistical conditions for the Goodness-of-Fit test at a 95% confidence level as the most fitting distribution in both periods.The extensive spatial and temporal changes in precipitation distribution are not confirmed as one of the components of climate change tracking. The calculation of the most fitting distribution parameters by linear torque method shows slight variations in the spatial dispersion pattern of these parameters. But, these changes do not follow a specific pattern. The mapping of the standard deviation variation indicates that in a vast part of central and western Iran, the confidence in precipitation has decreased in recent decades.
Seyyed Abolfazl Masudian; Reza Ebrahimi; Monireh Mohammadi
Abstract
One of the major factors that affect Iran’s climate, is its location in different geographical latitudes and variety of uneven lands on one hand, and entering of diverse synoptic systems during the year on the other hand. One of the main parameters that determinesthe climate of each region is temperature, ...
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One of the major factors that affect Iran’s climate, is its location in different geographical latitudes and variety of uneven lands on one hand, and entering of diverse synoptic systems during the year on the other hand. One of the main parameters that determinesthe climate of each region is temperature, especially degree-day (DD).
DD is the difference of the threshold temperature relative to the average daily temperature, and the temperature thresholds are also selected according to the objectives of the research. In this study, the sum of the average numbers of the country's annual and seasonal heating and cooling degree-day was calculated through the temperature thresholds of 25.11 and 25.14 respectively.The daily temperature data was extracted from the Asfazary database. The databases include the daily average temperature in 41 years from 1961 to 2002 on the 15x15 km. cells throughout the country. Thus, the average daily temperature in Asfazary database is an array of 15992x7187 dimensions in which the rows represent the time (day) and the columns represent the location (cells). The results of the research indicate that the highest cooling degree-day (CDD) is from the 11 degrees temperature threshold in the summer and is about 600-750 related to the coasts of Oman sea and the plain of Khuzistan, and the lowest is from the 25 degrees temperature threshold for the entire Iran in winter corresponding to a zero CDD. Regarding the amount of heating required, the highest is from the temperature threshold of 14 in the winter which is related to the Northwestern area and the heights with a CDD of 600-750 and the lowest is in the summer related to the whole country with a temperature threshold of 14 degrees corresponding to a zero CDD.
Ali Hanafi
Volume 23, Issue 89 , May 2014, , Pages 67-71
Abstract
Weathering happens with the breaking and transformation of ground surface stones, due to physical, chemical or biological processes. Wind, water, climate, plant and animal factors can cause weathering. The present study is performed based on Louis Peltier models in which two variables of average temperature ...
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Weathering happens with the breaking and transformation of ground surface stones, due to physical, chemical or biological processes. Wind, water, climate, plant and animal factors can cause weathering. The present study is performed based on Louis Peltier models in which two variables of average temperature and precipitation were used. Applying these two variables, Peltier distinguished 7 models which can describe different forms of weathering. Among these, two models of weathering regimes and morphogenetic regimes were investigated in Iran and related regimes of each station were determined based on the related graphs. To study and investigate weathering and geomorphologic areas across the country, climatic data including average annual precipitation and temperature were collected from 143 stations in Meteorological Organization portal with appropriate data and statistical period. The collected data were registered in a GIS database. After investigating the temperature and precipitation trend of the country, the regime of each station was determined using Peltier models and a weight was assigned to it. Then, they were registered into the mentioned database and related maps were produced in Arcmap. Results indicate that 5 of 9 morphogenetic situations of Peltier models occur in Iran climatic situation, so the central plateau, east and west of the country are mostly located in arid zone. Mountainous areas, Zagros and Alborz elevations have semi-arid regime, and stations located in southern coasts of the Caspian Sea and western hillsides of Zagros have a mild regime. Regarding weathering, areas in the central plateau and southern part of the country have a very low level of weathering, mountainous areas like Zagros and Alborz elevations and North West of the country have a weak level of mechanical weathering. Some stations in Northern Alborz and western hillsides of Zagros have average chemical weathering with frost and in some stations on the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea, severe chemical weathering occur.
Hossein Htaminejad; Zahra Zamani; Sadegh Hajinejad; Mohammad Ghazaie
Volume 22, Issue 88 , January 2014, , Pages 47-57
Abstract
In Iran, the policy of building new towns was proposed with the aim of decreasing demographic pressure on large cities during the late 1980s. Construction of new towns started and new urban problems and issues unfolded, after which different criticisms and suggestions for improvement were proposed. In ...
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In Iran, the policy of building new towns was proposed with the aim of decreasing demographic pressure on large cities during the late 1980s. Construction of new towns started and new urban problems and issues unfolded, after which different criticisms and suggestions for improvement were proposed. In this regard, the present article explains the reasons for the failure of new towns in Iran. This descriptive-analytic research takes advantage of documentary-secondary data collection method. Investigations show that due to temporary intense increase in the country’s population, widespread emigration from villages to cities and lower short term development capacity of cities compared to the population growth rate between 1961 and 1991, building new towns around many mother-cities of the country was not necessary. Yet, the main reason for the failure of these new towns in attracting population includes lack of a comprehensive plan to transfer industries from mother-cities to new towns, lack of an efficient public transportation system between mother-cities and new towns, uncertainty in predicting and grouping the population, economic situation and income of households in new towns, weakness in locating, lack of support from the government and other related organizations, the slower increasing trend of land price in new towns as compared to mother-cities, higher benefit of constructing residential units in mother-cities as compared to new towns, economic downturn and increasing inflation rate between 1990-2013, and purely physical attitude of urban planners in preparing the plans and neglecting people’s demands and needs.
Esmail Nasrabadi
Volume 22, SEPEHR , July 2013, , Pages 83-88
Abstract
Access to climatic data is a fundamental prerequisite in any climatic study. In past years, data received from Meteorology organization stations were among the most reliable and acceptable data for climatic study and using precipitation data of these stations were a dominant paradigm among climatologists. ...
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Access to climatic data is a fundamental prerequisite in any climatic study. In past years, data received from Meteorology organization stations were among the most reliable and acceptable data for climatic study and using precipitation data of these stations were a dominant paradigm among climatologists. But in recent decades, flaws and incapability of this paradigm in generalizing data received from one station to a zone especially in the case of unruly variables like precipitation resulted in adding a new paradigm and applying precipitation network data. Needs of the new paradigm to these kinds of data are somehow satisfied with precipitation network data.
These bases collect precipitation data from different resources and produce these network data in different degrees of separation using specific geo-referenced methods for regional to global zones in long time periods. However, complete analysis of each available station is not possible due to multiple and varied available versions. The present article seeks to introduce the overall structure and general features of precipitation network data bases and their capabilities. Finally, precipitation map was produced based on data received from some precipitation data stations.
Kheder Farajirad; Ali Mohammadpour; Ribaz Ghorbaninejad
Volume 22, Issue 86 , June 2013, , Pages 75-86
Abstract
Border regions in most countries, especially in developing ones are more low-level in terms of development level in comparison to the central regions. However, progress in globalization processes in recent decades has been resulted to time-space compression and decreasing of dividing role of borders ...
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Border regions in most countries, especially in developing ones are more low-level in terms of development level in comparison to the central regions. However, progress in globalization processes in recent decades has been resulted to time-space compression and decreasing of dividing role of borders between neighbor countries. This phenomenon has been increased economic relationships between countries and role of non-governmental actors. The border regions in recent decades, also, became cross-border regions and the conflict and tension space have became interaction regions.
Iran and Iraq have appropriate background to expand their commercial and economic interactions and developing of border regions because of many common values between two countries. In recent years and after revolution in Iraq's government structure, specially increasing in autonomous in northern region of that country, the relations and interactions between Baneh county and northern regions of Iraq, has been increased. This research, therefore, poses this fundamental question that which factors have been shaped Baneh Cross-border region flows and what development impacts of this phenomenon are. The aim of this article is to exploring the influential factors and explanations of flows and interactions in Baneh cross-border region by an analytical-descriptive method.
The results show that increasing in commercial interaction and enhancement of security in northern regions of Iraq have more impacts respectively in comparison to other factors. The results also show that impacts of these interactions are economic effects (3.84 score), social-cultural ones (3.61 score), spatial-physical ones (3.04 score) and political effects (2.79 score) respectively.
Hasan Lashgari; Vida Khalilian
Volume 21, Issue 84 , February 2013, , Pages 21-34
Abstract
Existence of a trough with high amplitude in the middle and high level of atmosphere activates Sudan low thermal pressure. High Pressure located on the surface and levels adjacent to the surface hinders the movement of this low pressure toward northeast, so it moves toward north as an invert trough. ...
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Existence of a trough with high amplitude in the middle and high level of atmosphere activates Sudan low thermal pressure. High Pressure located on the surface and levels adjacent to the surface hinders the movement of this low pressure toward northeast, so it moves toward north as an invert trough. The movement of this system toward north causes the integration of this system with low pressure of east Mediterranean. This Systen moves to east and then enters Iran from west or southwest. After entering Iran, it gradually moves toward central and north-eastern parts of the country and affects these areas.The system's rainfall is heavy at first, and during 2 to 3 days its rainfall reaches 50mm but when it moves toward center and northeastern parts of the country, its amount of rainfall is decreased to less than 7mm. All the country except for east ane southeast benefit from this system.
Rahim Sarvar; Sharareh Nourani
Volume 21, SEPEHR , February 2013, , Pages 95-101
Abstract
Theory of sustainable development was proposed in 1970s, and its foundations were implemented gradually by international organizations and national governments. Emphasis on protecting the environment, reducing energy use, preserving environmental values, along with helping local societies in their development ...
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Theory of sustainable development was proposed in 1970s, and its foundations were implemented gradually by international organizations and national governments. Emphasis on protecting the environment, reducing energy use, preserving environmental values, along with helping local societies in their development are among principles emerged in designing and managing hotels and accommodations, so that since 1990s eco-hotel acts as a distinctive brand in the global market and especially in countries with an active economy in tourism. Eco-tourism management with a particular emphasis on “essential preservation for development and essential development for preservation strategy” seeks to play an active role in the realization of sustainable development according to the agenda agreed by governments. Plans implemented in the process of designing and managing by eco-hotel brand have been so significant that other countries now view its principles a special necessity.
The present article seeks to investigate the basic requirements of approaching eco-hotel in Iran. The results of this documentary-analytic study indicate that Iran environmental values and geographic diversity, along with principled utilization of environmental values and creating maximum adaptability between hotels and residences with the characteristics of every place and area requires the application of particular guidelines
Hossein Haddadi; Hassan Heydari
Volume 21, Issue 82 , September 2012, , Pages 99-103
Abstract
Heavy rainfalls with thunder is an environmental phenomenon in Western part of the country. Western areas of the country are potentially prone to heavy thunder stones, since they face the direction of Western Winds and Mediterranean humidity and also because of the Zagros Elevations. Upper atmosphere ...
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Heavy rainfalls with thunder is an environmental phenomenon in Western part of the country. Western areas of the country are potentially prone to heavy thunder stones, since they face the direction of Western Winds and Mediterranean humidity and also because of the Zagros Elevations. Upper atmosphere data in the National Center of Environmental Prediction was used for synoptic study of the heavy rainfall on May 2nd, 2010. The condition of atmosphere during the heavy rainfall was analyzed by computational and graphical methods. Results of the synoptic analysis indicates that factors like blocking and twist in 500, 600 and 700 hPa, instability, convection in all atmospheric levels from 500 to 1000 hPa and positive vorticity in 500, 600, 700, 850 hPa were among affective factors in the occurrence of heavy rainfall on May 2nd 2010. According to the humidity-wind maps, the humidity resources of this heavy rainfall were located in 1000 to 850 Persian Gulf alignments and 700, 600, and 500 hPa of the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea.
Sohrab Askari
Volume 20, Issue 78 , August 2011, , Pages 107-113
Abstract
Persian Gulf has belonged to Iran since the dawn of history. The presence of Iranians in this aquatic zone is a historical and geographical fact. In some periods of history, the Persian Gulf was considered as amongst inland waters. The lawful presence of Iran in the Persian Gulf dates back to the year ...
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Persian Gulf has belonged to Iran since the dawn of history. The presence of Iranians in this aquatic zone is a historical and geographical fact. In some periods of history, the Persian Gulf was considered as amongst inland waters. The lawful presence of Iran in the Persian Gulf dates back to the year 1923. At that time, despite the opposition of major powers such as Britain and the United States, attempts were made to make the presence of Iranian navy in the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea organized. By adopting the law of determining the extent of the coastal waters and the area of state control in the seas, on July 15, 1934, Iran's actions became operational. In the year 1956, the oil law was ratified and exploration operations began in the territories of Iran. Iraq, without specifying its maritime territory, claimed that Iran's operations had entered the territory of that country. It went on to take unilateral measures to determine the scope of his maritime area, which faced Iran’s non-acceptance. Over the past five decades, the land and border issues and political differences between Iran and Iraq have been effective in the lack of sea division between the two countries. The geographic position of the coasts of Iran and Iraq relative to each other and the exact location of the Tripartite Point, which is the crossing point of the maritime borders of Iran, Iraq and Kuwait, will have a great influence on the future border-determination process of the two countries. Currently, Iran's sea border with Iraq is under the influence of issues such as the re-signing of Algeria treaty in 1975, marking the borders with bars, the dredging of the Shatt al-Arab River (Arvandroud), the payment of war damage inflicted by Iraq, and so on. This article, while explaining the above-mentioned issues, tries to explain the necessity of settling the Iranian sea border with Iraq.
Morteza Tavakkoli; Amangaldi Sherafat Seyyed
Volume 18, Issue 70 , August 2009, , Pages 44-47
Abstract
Tourism and tourism economics are becoming one of the pillars of the world's commercial economy. In addition, many planners and policy makers consider tourism industry as the main pillar of sustainable development. Travelers and globetrotters are important sources of foreign currency, and governments ...
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Tourism and tourism economics are becoming one of the pillars of the world's commercial economy. In addition, many planners and policy makers consider tourism industry as the main pillar of sustainable development. Travelers and globetrotters are important sources of foreign currency, and governments are working day by day to expand the tourism industry and its new options. In this regard, ecotourism is a kind of tourism that, while preserving natural resources, maintains the well-being, comfort and values of the local people. In this paper, ecotourism and its developmental issues and tourist attractions are described, and ecotourism is considered as a desirable option for the development of tourism in the world as well as in Iran, and it is generally inferred that due to the position of Iran among the first five countries benefiting from the broadest climatic variation in the world, conditions are favorable for any ecotourism investment in Iran. The present research is theoretical and descriptive, conducted through the review of secondary sources and Internet search. In this article, we describe the ecotourism and its concepts, attractions of nature tourism, as well as the ecotourism attractions of Iran.
Ali Akbar Rasuli; Mas'ud Mina'ii; Mahmud Davoodi
Volume 16, Issue 61 , May 2007, , Pages 43-46
Abstract
The application of remote sensing data is illustrated by the example of the Mount Damavand (5671 m) in the Alborz mountain range in Iran. Several types of satellite data were needed to carry out the complex monographic work on the mountain range: SSEOP images from NASA, Russian KFA-1000 images, CORONA ...
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The application of remote sensing data is illustrated by the example of the Mount Damavand (5671 m) in the Alborz mountain range in Iran. Several types of satellite data were needed to carry out the complex monographic work on the mountain range: SSEOP images from NASA, Russian KFA-1000 images, CORONA panoramic images from NASA and Russian KVR-1000 orthoimages. There are examples of studies of climate, transportation routes, water resources, protected areas, and relics of human land-use that demonstrate the potential of remote sensing data. Correct selection of image data in using remote sensing is a necessity for documenting and monitoring human activities.
