Geographic Data
Sajedeh Baghban; Masoud Minaei
Abstract
Extended AbstractIntroductionMore than 55% of the world's population now lives in cities, while around one billion people worldwide living in informal settlements. The city of Mashhad, as the second metropolis of Iran, has not been deprived of the phenomenon of marginalization and despite 3894 hectares ...
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Extended AbstractIntroductionMore than 55% of the world's population now lives in cities, while around one billion people worldwide living in informal settlements. The city of Mashhad, as the second metropolis of Iran, has not been deprived of the phenomenon of marginalization and despite 3894 hectares of informal settlements is the second city in Iran in terms of the size of such settlements. Informal settlements in the city are less resilient than other parts of the city, mainly due to their distinct social and physical characteristics. Some argue are focusing only on physical factors of resilient, but this is not possible without considering the social factors and social and demographic characteristics of communities. if society is prepared to deal with that crisis, a large volume of disturbances and irregularities after the crisis will be reduced. Since the approach of sustainable urban regeneration in Mashhad has started since 2019 with the establishment of facilitation offices and considering that these offices emphasize the social dimension of regeneration and the participation of local community in this process, therefore, the results of the present study can be effective in this way. Therefore, this study aims to find the answers to the following questions with the aim of spatial analysis of social resilience in the suburbs of the city:How is the social resilience of the suburbs in Mashhad?How is the spatial pattern of social resilience in Mashhad?Research MethodsSince the present study tries to analyze social resilience in the suburbs of Mashhad by using MCDM methods in the framework of urban resilience criteria, it has used descriptive-analytical method in the form of an applied research. For this purpose, based on library studies (articles, books, reports, and various documents), the required information in the field of social equity was collected. Then, by examining the dimensions and frameworks of social resilience, its criteria were determined and operationally defined. In this research, IDRISI software has been used to analyze the research data and evaluate them. Spatial statistics tools in ArcGIS software have been used to analyze the relationship between inefficiency distribution. Inefficiency pattern analysis is also performed by spatial autocorrelation technique. For this purpose, there are different models for measuring spatial autocorrelation statistics, among which the global Moran model and Gi statistic have been used. Spatial modeling of factors affecting inefficiency has been done by geographical weight regression.Discussion and resultsSince there are 3894 hectares of informal settlements in Mashhad and due to the fact that these settlements have been formed over time and without regard to urban planning standards, so they are very sensitive to natural and unnatural hazards and in case of any crisis, returning to pre-accident conditions is important. There are several factors involved in this field, including physical, economic, and social factors. The outcome of all these dimensions will affect the return of these settlements to pre-crisis conditions. Meanwhile, a review of studies on resilience showed that the physical dimension of resilience has been emphasized more than its social dimension. In the current situation of a metropolis such as Mashhad, an important part of the population and area of Mashhad is its suburbs, which includes 66 neighborhoods with a population of nearly one million people and an area of 3894 hectares. If we consider the city as an integrated system, it should be said that other dimensions of resilience, including social resilience, will also affect other sectors, including the physical one.ConclusionAnalysis of WLC, AHP and FUZZY methods, which were used in this study to evaluate the resilience of marginalized neighborhoods, showed that neighborhoods located in the northeast of Mashhad have more resilience than other areas, while the eastern and southeastern areas are less resilient. The social resilience pattern of these neighborhoods was evaluated by using the global Moran method and G general statistics. The results of this study showed that this zoning in the northeast and southeast is not random and has a spatial autocorrelation, so that in the northeast of the cluster of resilient neighborhoods, has led to increased resilience of other neighborhoods and in the southeast, low resilience has affected its reduction in adjacent areas. Warm and relatively warm clusters make up 1631 hectares of suburban areas, which is estimated to be equivalent to 42% of these neighborhoods. In fact, 31 neighborhoods in the suburbs of Mashhad are in hot and relatively hot clusters. The pattern of resilience is not significant elsewhere. Also, modeling the criteria studied in the study showed that the percentage of employed population, percentage of active population and average age have a significant effect on social resilience. According to the results of the leading research, in the process of re-creation that is taking place in the city of Mashhad, there should be a special look at the social dimensions of neighborhoods because the promotion of these dimensions can affect other aspects of resilience. Also, considering the impact of employment on the rate of resilience, it is suggested that in the process of recreating marginalized neighborhoods, special attention must be paid to job creation in these neighborhoods.
Yaghob Abdali; Ahmad Pourahmad; Milad Amini; Isaac Khandan
Abstract
Extended Abstract: Introduction: Natural disasters have always been considered to be a great challengefor sustainable development throughout the world. Consequently, the paths to this development through the vulnerability reduction patterns are very important. Therefore, it is particularly important ...
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Extended Abstract: Introduction: Natural disasters have always been considered to be a great challengefor sustainable development throughout the world. Consequently, the paths to this development through the vulnerability reduction patterns are very important. Therefore, it is particularly important to reduce the risks of these disasters and necessary to consider a proper position in the national policy-making of countries in order to provide an appropriate condition for the effective reduction of the risks in different levels. Most of the plans made in the field of earthquake management are limited to the time interval during and after the occurrence of the crisis and less attention is paid to the pre-disaster planning. Among the plans for the risk reduction, resilience can be considered a more accurate and successful plan due to its consideration of social, institutional, economic, and physical aspects of a city. In fact,it aims to reduce the vulnerability of the communities and prepare people to face the risks caused by natural disasters. The management of natural disasters requires understanding their nature, accurate assessments, planning and finally providing proper strategies. Hence, it is very important to explain the relationship between resilience in natural disasters (such as earthquake) and reducetheir impact given the results that it might have and the emphasis of this analysis on the aspect of resilience. Materials & Methods:The present study is an applied study in terms of purpose and is adescriptive survey type in terms of research method. Documentary method based on library studies and survey approach with a questionnaire tool was used to collect the research data. The assessment criteria for the resilience of urban communities were first determined in the present study. Then, a questionnaire was designed and distributed among the residents of Nourabad and Maskan-e Mehr in order to prepare the initial matrix for these criteria. The study population consists of the residents of Nourabad and Maskan-e Mehr of this city. Cochran's formula was used to estimate the sample size. According to the initial results of the census conducted in 2016, the population of Nourabad, including the residents of Maskan-e Mehr, was 66417. Therefore,given this population, the sample size was obtained to be 384 for the city of Nourabad using Cochran’s formula and the sample size for Maskan-e Mehr was obtained to be 500 households with household dimension of 5.5, given the number of households settled in Maskan-e Mehr until the end of 2017. The sample size was estimated to be 340 people for Maskan-e Mehr using Morgan’s table,. The scoring basis of the criteria was based on Likert 5-point scale with1 representing very low, 2 low, 3 medium, 4 high, and 5 very high. Finally, the average point of this questionnaire was considered as the initial matrix for VIKOR model. In the proposed method, the final weight of the criteria was determined based on AHP pair-wise comparison matrix. Finally, the criteria were ranked based on VIKOR technique procedure. In general, the findings of the current research were analyzed through hierarchy analysis and integration of the indices using VIKOR technique. Results & Discussion:In the first step, the raw data of each criterion associated with the resilience of Nourabad County and Maskan-e Mehr, which were extracted from the questionnaire, were used and the decision-making matrix was created. In the second step, Equation (1) was used to obtain the weight normalization matrix for Nourabad and Maskan-e Mehr. In the third step, AHP method was used for the weighting of the normalized matrix and determining the weight of the indices. The weights of the proposed indices were determined by the residents of Nourabad County and Maskan-e Mehr and were calculated using the AHP method in Excel 2013 software and were assigned to each index. After determining the weight of the criteria, the values of the normalized matrix for each option was multiplied by the weight of the criteria and consequently, the weighted normalized matrix was obtained. In order to determine the best and worst values for the criteria, equations (2) and (3) i.e. determining the positive and negative ideal points were used. Equations (4) and (5) were used to calculate the distance of the options from the ideal solution. Finally, VIKOR index (Qi) was used to rate the resilience of Nourabad County and Maskan-e Mehr based on the distance from the ideal solution. Generally, the views of the residents of Nourabad and Maskan-e Mehr were combined through VIKOR method to determine the value and importance of the criteria and the final weights of the criteria were determined using the AHP method. Applying the obtained weight on the initial values of the criteria and combining the weight indices, Nourabad County and Maskan-e Mehr were prioritized in terms of resilience. Conclusion:The results obtained from VIKOR technique showed that this method, as one of the multi-criteria decision-making method, has capabilities including multi-attribute utility theory or non-ranking methods. On this basis and after calculating the weights through hierarchy analysis process and using VIKOR technique, the difference in the resilience of Nourabad County and Nourabad Maskan-e Mehr was determined. Based on the calculations and the associated indices, Nourabad County has the highest resilience level with S=0.763, R=0.49, and Q=0.966, whilethe Maskan-e Mehr of this city has the lowest resilience with indices S=0.666, R=0.272, and Q=0.626. Given the Q index, Nourabad County (pre-created communities) has a more favorable condition in terms of resilience against natural disasters (earthquakes) compared to the Maskan-e Mehr of this city (planned communities) in social, institutional, economic, and physical aspects.
