Behrouz Nasiri; zahra yarmoradi
Abstract
Abstract[1]
The increase in greenhouse gases in the last few decades has disrupted the climatic balance of the Earth which is called the phenomenon of climate change. The main consequences of climate change will be the increase in global average temperature, the increase of climatic extreme phenomena ...
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Abstract[1]
The increase in greenhouse gases in the last few decades has disrupted the climatic balance of the Earth which is called the phenomenon of climate change. The main consequences of climate change will be the increase in global average temperature, the increase of climatic extreme phenomena such as floods, storms, hail, thermal waves, sea level rise, melting of polar ice and untimely cold. The use of Statistical Downscaling Models for estimating climatic fluctuations allows weather data to be generated at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Such capabilities have contributed greatly to studying local and regional climatic fluctuations. In this research, the efficiency of LARS-WG model was examined and evaluated for generating and simulating daily temperature, sunny hours and rainfall data in Lorestan province using MAE, T-STUDENT, MAE, R2 statistical parameters and their subsequent changes in the future became apparent too. The results showed that at 99% confidence level, there is no significant difference between actual data and data obtained from the model and the model has the necessary efficiency in generating daily data. After making sure of the model’s efficiency, the outputs of the HADCM3 model were used and the daily temperature, radiation and precipitation data for the base period (1961-2005) were simulated under three scenarios of A1B (mid-range scenario), A2 (maximum scenario) and B1 (scenario Minimum).Based on the HADCM3 model estimates for the scenarios under study in future periods, the average maximum temperature and precipitation of the province would increase about (0.9 to 1.3 degrees) and (12.04 percent), respectively, and average sunny hours would decrease by about 0.6.Also, despite lower changes in maximum temperature than the minimum temperature, the average temperature increase in this period is expected. According to these results, the climatic conditions of Lorestan province in the next 50 years will have a significant difference with the current situation and long-term strategic plans seem necessary to manage these conditions.
[1] - به دلیل کیفیت نامناسب متن چکیده مبسوط انگلیسیِ ارائه شده توسط نویسنده مسئول مقاله، نشریه به ناچار اقدام به ترجمه مجدد متن چکیده فارسی و انتشار آن به جای چکیده مبسوط انگلیسی نموده است.
Mohsen Abbasnia; Taqi Tavousi; Mahmood Khosravi; Toros Hossein
Abstract
Recognizing and evaluating the climate changes in the coming decades is absolutely necessary for the purpose of appropriate environmental planning in order to adapt and mitigate its effects. In this research, the SDSM model was successfully calibrated and validated (1981-2010) tocomparatively analyze ...
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Recognizing and evaluating the climate changes in the coming decades is absolutely necessary for the purpose of appropriate environmental planning in order to adapt and mitigate its effects. In this research, the SDSM model was successfully calibrated and validated (1981-2010) tocomparatively analyze and explore the future maximum daily temperature variations over Iran forthe two future periods of (2041-70 and 2071-99) and based on the output of two general circulation models of atmosphere, namely, Hadcm3 and CGCM3 under the existing emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, B2), relative to the baseline period of 1981-2010. In other words, with regard to the uncertainty for the maximum daily temperature of the future data, downscaling was performed in 7 synoptic stations as the climatic representatives of Iran. Analysis of the output uncertainty showed that CGCM3 model under the B1 scenario among all different models-scenarios has had the best performance in simulating the future temperature. Also, the findings of the research on the studied stations indicate that the temperature in Iran in the middle and final decades of the 21st century increases in averagebetween 1 to 2 degrees Celsius, which based on different scenarios of the Hadcm3 model, this temperature increase has been higher compared to the CGCM3 model. In terms of spatial dispersion of the changes in the GIS environment based on the output of all scenario-models, the lowest temperature increase was observed at Bandar Abbas station located on the south lowland coast of Iran, and on the contrary, the temperature rise reaches the maximumat the Tabriz station located onthe northern latitudes and highland and mountainous regions of Iran. In total, the important and effective factors in the future changes of Iran's temperature can be classified into three groups: factors of altitude, latitude and atmospheric humidity, because, based on all the outputs of model-scenarios, the stations located on the northern latitude elevations of Iran will experience the highest temperature rise compared to the stations located on low-altitude and adjacent to the southern coast of Iran.
