Geographic Data
Mostafa Mohamadi dehcheshme; Sohrab Ghaedi; Fereshteh shanbehpoor
Abstract
Extended AbstractIntroductionClimate change is the greatest threat to humanity, because it is the main factor in increasing the frequency and severity of atmospheric events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, etc. that are experienced today. Climate change can cause a wide range of environmental problems, ...
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Extended AbstractIntroductionClimate change is the greatest threat to humanity, because it is the main factor in increasing the frequency and severity of atmospheric events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, etc. that are experienced today. Climate change can cause a wide range of environmental problems, including severe drought and water scarcity, crop loss, and increased socioeconomic consequences. One way to identify climate change is to evaluate climate and temperature indicators. Based on statistical tests and time series of occurrence of these parameters in the long run, the status of change and its trend can be identified. Given the importance of the impact of climate change on all sectors, the study of the consequences of these changes requires the study of all sectors and effective factors with a systemic approach. One of the concerns of human society is the changes that have caused climate change due to global warming. In this regard, given the importance of climate change on all sectors, the study of the consequences of these changes requires the study of all sectors and factors with a systemic approach. Considering the importance of climate change and its effects, this study seeks to answer the following questions by considering important climatic parameters and vulnerable urban dimensions (economic, social, political, environmental):1- The trend of climate change changes (Temperature and rainfall, humidity, wind speed) what is it like in Ahvaz?2- What is the causal relationship between the causes of climate change and vulnerable sectors in the city of Ahvaz? 3- What are the effects and consequences of climate change on the city of Ahvaz?Materials & MethodsThe research methodology is based on statistical tests and qualitative modeling with a systemic approach. The present study analyzes the trend of changes in climatic parameters including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed for a period of 30 years (1991-2020) in Ahvaz using the statistical Mann-Kendall Test was examined. Then, using the science of system dynamics, the causal relationships between variables and structural modeling of the consequences of climate change in Vensim software are investigated. The main stage of using the system dynamics approach is to try to understand and identify the feedback loops of the system under study, for which purpose diagrams of causal loops are drawn. In this study, inputs are the factors that shape climate change are factors that affect the city system. System outputs will be the consequences of climate change.Results & DiscussionBased on the results of the analysis of the trend of climatic parameters, the city of Ahvaz in the study period has faced an increase in temperature, increase in relative humidity, decrease in wind speed, and decrease in rainfall. During the 30-year trend (1991-2020), the average rainfall has been (226) mm, each year (1.32) mm, has decreased and followed a downward trend. The average temperature has been (25.38) degrees Celsius, it has increased every year (by 0.051) degrees, which shows an increasing trend over 30 years. Based on the results, the average relative humidity was (41.1), which increased every year (0.007). Also, according to the results, the average wind speed is (2.65 m/s) and has decreased by about (0.018) every year. Therefore, the wind speed shows a decreasing trend over 30 years. Given that climate change refers to the spatial-temporal changes in the long-term average of climatic elements, the results of this study clearly showed that climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed) in the study area have undergone fundamental changes. The consequences of climate change on all economic, social, political, and environmental aspects were evaluated. The results of qualitative modeling and causal relationship showed that climate change in Ahwaz has a direct impact on different sectors of water resources, agricultural production, and energy consumption. Variables of (reduction of water reserves upstream, extreme heat waves) are the most important leverage points of the model. Different outcomes have complex interactions with each other in such a way that they affect different economic, social, environmental, and political dimensions and ultimately intensify each other's effects on reducing the quality of life and increasing climate migration.ConclusionAs a result, climate change has consequences such as increasing unemployment, reducing the quality of life, reducing urban resilience, and ultimately increasing climate migration in the city of Ahvaz, and the urban environment is not equipped to adapt to climate change.
Hossein Hataminejad; Yaghob Abdali; Sara Allah Gholipour
Abstract
Abstract[1] Today, following the rapid changes in cities, part of urban texture has failed to establish a proper connection with its environment and servicing to the users due to deterioration and inefficiencies. The existence of a widespread worn texture is one of the most important challenges facing ...
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Abstract[1] Today, following the rapid changes in cities, part of urban texture has failed to establish a proper connection with its environment and servicing to the users due to deterioration and inefficiencies. The existence of a widespread worn texture is one of the most important challenges facing urban managers, urban planners and architects, because the lack of attention to these structures causes the decline of city and its heterogeneous development and the creation of new towns on the edge of the old city. Due to the fact that a significant part of the problems of Ahwaz city has appeared in district 1 of the city, it was considered as the study area, and the central part was studied due to the excessive wear of the texture and the severe deterioration process. The present research is an applied-developmental research in terms of objectives, and a descriptive-analytical one in terms of methodology based on library studies and field investigations. In order to achieve the research goals, the building Structure Indexes, material, number of floors and building age were extracted. Regression tools were used to explore pattern trends, and spatial autocorrelation method existing in Geoda software was used to weigh the layers in spatial data. To examine the vulnerability of worn out texture by using Anselin local Morans method, the cluster & outlier analysis tool from the tool set available in Spatial Statistics Tools relating to the ArcGIS Software was used. The results of this study indicate that 45.83 percent of the surface area is in the range of medium to high vulnerability, suggesting that a large part of the worn out texture in the central area of Ahwaz is somehow in need of passive defense planning. [1] - به دلیل کیفیت نامناسب ترجمه (چکیده مبسوط انگلیسیِ دریافتی) نشریه، به ناچار اقدام به ترجمه مجدد متن مختصر چکیده فارسی و انتشار آن به جای چکیده مبسوط انگلیسی نموده است.
Saeed Amanpour; Mohammad Javad Kamelifar; Hojjat Bahmani
Abstract
Abstract[1]
One of the main challenges in the urban development process in developing countries is their accelerated growth, which, if this growth issporadic and unplanned,it will pose a lot of problems to the urban management process and planning.The city of Ahwaz is one of the cities in our country ...
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Abstract[1]
One of the main challenges in the urban development process in developing countries is their accelerated growth, which, if this growth issporadic and unplanned,it will pose a lot of problems to the urban management process and planning.The city of Ahwaz is one of the cities in our country that has witnessed arapid and scattered growth in urban land development in recent years. According to the status map of the urban land development, this trend has been intensifying year by year and has led to challenges in providing services and infrastructural resources in the city. In this regard, due to the necessity of the issue, in the present study, we tried to use a descriptive-analytical method to evaluate land use changes in the metropolis of Ahwaz between 1989 and 2013. Data collection in descriptive section was done through the study of library documents, and in the analytical part of the research, by extraction of satellite images TM (Thematic Mapper) for the years of 1985 and 2013 from Ahwaz city. Envi 4.8 and Arc GIS 10.2 software have been used to perform statistical and visual analyzes on satellite imagery. The results show that during the years 1989 to 2013 about 23 percent of the share of barren and agricultural lands have decreased and on the other side the share of built-up lands has increasedfrom 16.35 to 34.55, most of which are related to the Southern and Eastern parts of Ahwaz (Parts of areas 4, 5 and 6 of the municipality).
[1] - به دلیل کیفیت نامناسب متن چکیده مبسوط انگلیسیِ ارائه شده توسط نویسنده مسئول مقاله، نشریه به ناچار اقدام به ترجمه مجدد متن چکیده فارسی و انتشار آن به جای چکیده مبسوط انگلیسی نموده است.
