Scientific- Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR)

Scientific- Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR)

Root-Cause analysis of threats to Qeshm Island: A mixed-methods approach (DPSIR-DEMATEL)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Roghayeh Garmaeepour 1
Amir Alambeigi 2
Afshin Danehkar 3
Abdulwahed Pehpouri 4
1 Ph.D. Postdoctoral researcher, Department of environment, Faculty of natural resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2 Associate professor, Department of agricultural extension and education, Faculty of agriculture, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of environmental science, Faculty of natural resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
4 Ph.D, of geotourism development department, Qeshm Island UNESCO Global Geopark, Qeshm, Iran
10.22131/sepehr.2026.2084485.3170
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Coastal environments are among the most productive yet highly sensitive ecosystems on Earth, playing a critical role in sustaining livelihoods, food security, biodiversity, and human well-being. Estimates indicate that approximately 60% of the world’s population resides in coastal zones; areas that, while attracting industrial, tourism, and infrastructure-related activities, simultaneously experience the greatest intensity of human pressures. In the absence of integrated management and effective governance, such pressures can lead to the degradation of coastal ecosystems, the erosion of social capital, and a decline in the quality of life of local communities.
Qeshm Island, as the largest island in the Persian Gulf and one of Iran’s first trade–industrial free zones, exemplifies this situation. Established to promote economic development, attract investment, and improve local livelihoods, the island has, over recent decades, faced a range of environmental, social, economic, and institutional challenges. The aim of this study is to identify and prioritize development threats on Qeshm Island and to provide an analytical framework for elucidating the roots of unsustainability while proposing appropriate management strategies.
Materials and Methods
This study employed a mixed-methods (qualitative–quantitative) approach and was conducted in seven stages. In the first stage, initial threats were identified through a review of documents and previous studies. These threats were then refined and supplemented through semi-structured interviews with the local community. Subsequently, a structured questionnaire was developed, and the identified issues were prioritized using the Eisenhower Importance–Urgency Matrix. In the following stages, in-depth interviews with experts and local specialists were conducted to collect the necessary data for analyzing causal relationships among the threats. The DEMATEL technique was employed to examine the cause–effect structure, and finally, the results were integrated within the DPSIR framework (Drivers–Pressures–State–Impact–Response) to provide a systemic representation of the unsustainability cycle on Qeshm Island. This methodological integration enabled the simultaneous identification of the intensity, direction, and nature of relationships among the threats.
Results
The study identified approximately 30 threat factors on Qeshm Island, of which 15 were classified as “important and urgent” based on the Importance–Urgency Matrix. These threats were primarily associated with drivers such as unsustainable tourism development, weak infrastructure development, insufficient economic development, and managerial inefficiency. The DEMATEL analysis revealed that institutional and managerial threats—particularly “managerial duality between the Free Zone Organization and the governorate,” “frequent turnover of managers,” “absence of monitoring and evaluation systems,” and “unaccountable governance”—belong to the causal group and play the most significant role in shaping other threats. In contrast, factors such as environmental degradation, cultural erosion, development lacking social attachment, and the decline of social capital were the most affected by other threats.
Discussion and Conclusion
Comparing DEMATEL results with the DPSIR framework revealed that the pattern of unsustainability on Qeshm Island is neither linear nor simple; rather, it operates as an institutional–social feedback loop. Weak governance and an inefficient managerial structure act as the primary drivers, generating pressures in economic, social, and environmental domains. These pressures undermine the island’s ecological and social conditions, leading to consequences such as environmental degradation, social dissatisfaction, and a decline in social capital. Subsequently, these very consequences, by eroding public trust and participation, further reproduce governance weaknesses and institutional inefficiencies. These findings indicate that unsustainable development on Qeshm Island does not stem from a lack of natural resources or economic capacity, but rather from a flawed governance structure and the absence of institutional coordination.
The findings of this study also indicate that the classical DPSIR framework alone is insufficient to fully explain the institutional and social dynamics in free zones. Integrating it with network analysis tools such as DEMATEL can provide a better understanding of nonlinear relationships, feedback loops, and the role of social capital in the unsustainability cycle. From this perspective, the present study not only offers a comprehensive depiction of the issues facing Qeshm Island but also provides a practical analytical model for examining development threats in sensitive coastal and island areas.
Overall, the findings of this study emphasize that piecemeal and sectoral solutions—such as implementing infrastructure projects or controlling limited environmental pressures—will not be sufficient to address Qeshm’s challenges without reforming the underlying institutional roots. Escaping the unsustainability cycle requires reengineering the governance structure of free zones, clarifying institutional mandates, strengthening managerial accountability, enhancing local community participation in decision-making, and giving serious attention to social capital as the foundation for sustainable development. The experience of Qeshm Island can serve as a cautionary example for other free zones in the country, demonstrating that development without coordinated, transparent, and participatory governance not only fails to achieve sustainable well-being but also becomes a factor in reproducing social and environmental unsustainability.
Keywords
Qeshm Island
Governance
Unsustainable development
DPSIR
DEMATEL
Free zones
Subjects
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