تحلیل امنیت بوم شناختی تغییرات کاربری اراضی حوضه لواسانات با استفاده از خدمات تولیدی اکوسیستم - مطالعه موردی: تولیدآب

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری برنامه ریزی محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار برنامه ریزی محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

3 استادیار برنامه ریزی محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

10.22131/sepehr.2021.246106

چکیده

تبدیل پوشش طبیعی فضاهای شهری به سکونتگاههای انسانی باعث تغییرات ساختاری و عملکردی این فضاها شده است. لذا خدمات زیست محیطی ارائه شده توسط این زیرساختهای بومشناختی روز به روز ضعیفتر میشود، که این امر منجر به کاهش امنیت بومشناختی شهرها شده و تهدیدی برای توسعه پایدار میباشد. از آنجایی که در بین خدمات اکوسیستمی، تولید آب در برابر تغییرات شدید ناشی از تغییرات کاربری اراضی آسیبپذیرتر بوده، مورد هدف این تحقیق قرار گرفته است. هدف از این تحقیق، از یک سو پایش تغییرات کاربری اراضی در یک دوره زمانی 20 ساله (2000 - 2020) با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره لندست و از سوی دیگر ارزیابی امنیت بومشناختی خدمات اکوسیستمی (تولید آب) در دورههای زمانی مطرح شده است. این پژوهش در حوضه آبخیر لواسانات که واقع در استان تهران است، انجام شد. دادههای مورد نیاز این مدل شامل نقشههای مرز حوضه، بارش، پتانسیل تبخیر و تعرق، عمق خاک، آب قابل دسترس گیاه و کاربریهای اراضی و پوشش گیاهی و همچنین یک جدول خصوصیت بیوفیزیکی میباشد که در نرمافزار InVEST 3.7.0 وارد شده و به وسیله آن، مدل نقشهسازی میزان تولید آب در دهههای مختلف بدست آمد. پس از وارد کردن دادههای مورد نیاز مدل، نتایج نشان داد که میزان تولید آب در سالهای 2000، 2010 و 2020 به ترتیب برابر با2641734.816 ، 3318950.915 و 7737201.215 متر مکعب بوده است. محاسبات مدل نشان میدهد که میزان تولید آب در حوضه لواسانات در حال افزایش میباشد. این افزایش به این دلیل است که کاربریهای ساخته شده در حال افزایش بوده لذا مقدار آب در دسترس به صورت رواناب افزایش و امنیت بومشناختی محدوده مورد مطالعه کاهش یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing ecological security of land use changes in Lavasanat Basin using ecosystem services (water production)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yaser Moarrab 1
  • Esmaiel Salehi 2
  • Mohammad Javad Amiri 3
  • Hassan Hoveidi 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate of Environmental planning, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran
2 Associate professor of Environmental planning, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant professor of Environmental planning, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract
Introduction
The global rise in urbanization and settlement of the majority of the world’s population in urban areas create opportunities and challenges for improving the quality and sustainability of life. Potential of cities for meeting the basic needs of people has become an important part of recent scientific and political debates. Covering only a small area of land, cities are responsible for many global environmental problems such as carbon emissions, energy and resource consumption, biodiversity degradation, and ecosystem degradation. They also convert natural forests to human settlements, farms, roads, gardens, and other human-made land uses, leaving many direct and indirect effects on natural conditions and ecological functions of upstream and downstream in forests (such as changes in quantity and quality of water, changes in water flow in rivers, changes in climatic condition and habitat quality). These structural and functional changes undermine environmental services provided by ecological infrastructure and threaten the environmental security of cities and their sustainable development. Therefore, urban managers and experts have always sought a suitable way for urban planning to regulate the structure of cities, support the stability of ecosystem and its performance, and maintain the ecological security of cities.
 
Case study
Lavasanat is a district in Shemiranat County in Tehran province of Iran, which is located in the northeast of Tehran.
 
Methods
The present study analyzes temporal-spatial changes of land use / land cover and then, uses InVEST 3.7.0 model to evaluate temporal-spatial changes of land uses.
 
Results & Discussion
Changes occurring in the reference period were depicted in maps prepared for various land cover / land use classes. Validation of image classification shows a total accuracy of 95.72%, 96.26% and 95.32% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.948, 0.943 and 0.936 for classifications in 2000, 2010 and 2020, respectively, which is acceptable and indicates the compatibility of classified land uses and reality. Classification of images using maximum likelihood algorithm showed the presence of five classes of residential areas (urban area, villages, industries and roads), barren lands, pastures, water bodies and green space in the region.
Land use maps and information derived from satellite images indicate that residential areas have experienced a growing trend due to increasing population, demand for land and consequent growth of urbanism, while green space had a decreasing trend during the reference period. Development of residential areas and reduction in green space are quite evident between 2010 and 2020. According to the present trend of land use change, there will be a sharp decline in green space in the coming years. Pastures experienced a decreasing trend from 2000 to 2010. However, it faces an increasing trend from 2010 to 2020 since more green areas were converted into pastures. Barren lands experienced a decreasing trend from 2000 to 2020.
 
Conclusion
The present paper offers the results of modeling water production services in Lavasanat Basin in different decades. Results indicate that the water production in the entire Lavasanat basin equals 2641734.816 cubic meters in 2000, 3318950.915 cubic meters in 2010 and 7737201.215 cubic meters in 2020. Of these volumes, 1677926.367 cubic meters in 2000, 2287145.055 cubic meters in 2010, and 4908786.651 cubic meters in 2020 belonged to residential areas. This class contained an area of 4820578.505 square meters in 2000, 6885513.787 square meters in 2010 and 10407948.705 square meters in 2020 in the whole basin.
The results obtained from InVEST scenario building model and water production model showed that the increasing trend of human-made land uses in the study area has a significant impact on increasing water production and, consequently, increases runoff. In fact, water production has experienced a growth rate of 1.25 or 125% from 2000 to 2010, and a growth rate of 2.33 or 233% from 2010 to 2020. Thus in 20 years, water production has increased by 2.92 (292%). The volume of water production in residential areas has increased by 1.36 times (136 %) from 2000 to 2010, 2.14 times (214 %) from 2010 to 2020 and 2.92 times (292%) in 20 years. Also, the total area covered by residential land use has grown 1.42 times from 2000 to 2010 (142 %), and 1.51 times (151%) from 2010 to 2020.  Therefore, an increase of 2.15 or 215% was observed in residential areas over this 20 year period.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Ecological security
  • Land use
  • Water production
  1. شفیعی ثابت، شکیبا، محمدی؛ ناصر، علیرضا، اشکان (1398)، آشکارسازی و پیش­‌بینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی با استفاده از مدل CA-Markov مطالعه موردی: محور کلان­شهر تهران دماوند، فصلنامه علمی- پژوهشی اطلاعات جغرافیایی(سپهر)، دوره 28، شماره 111، ص 175- 190.
  2. طالاری، آرش، 1395، تحلیل مورفومتری حوضه لواسانات و تأثیر آن بر تغییرات شبکه زهکشی، دانشگاه تهران، دانشکده جغرافیا، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، استاد راهنما: دکتر ابراهیم مقیمی، استاد مشاور: دکتر مجتبی یمانی.
  3. ممبنی، عسگری؛ مریم، حمیدرضا (1397)، پایش، بررسی و پیش‌­بینی روند تغییرات مکانی کاربری اراضی/ پوشش زمین با استفاده از مدل زنجیره­‌ای مارکوف مطالعه موردی: شوشتر - خوزستان، فصلنامه علمی- پژوهشی اطلاعات جغرافیایی(سپهر)، دوره 27، شماره 105، ص 35-47.
  4. Bettencourt, L., West, G., 2010. A unified theory of urban living.pdf. Nat. Int. J. sceiences 467, 912–913. https://doi.org/10.1038/467912a
  5. Brauman, K.A., Daily, G.C., Duarte,T.K.E., and Mooney, H.A. 2007. Thenature and value of ecosystem services:an overview highlighting hydrologicservices. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resource.32: 67-98.
  6. Brisbane Declaration. 2007. The BrisbaneDeclaration: Environmental flows areessential for freshwater ecosystem healthand human well-being. In 10th InternationalRiver Symposium, Brisbane, 3-6.
  7. Chen, L., Sun, R., Yang, L. (2018). Regional Eco-security: Concept, Principles and Pattern Design, Challenges Towards Ecological Sustainability in China, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03484-9_2.
  8. Chen, M., Qin, X., Zeng, G., & Li, J. Impacts of human activity modes and climate on heavy metal “spread” in groundwater are biased. Chemosphere, 2016; 152, 439-445.
  9. Chen, N., Qin, F., Zhai, Y., Zhang, R., Cao, F., 2020, Evaluation of coordinated development of forestry management efficiency and forest ecological security: A spatiotemporal empirical study based on China’s provinces, Journal of Cleaner Production, 260, 121042.
  10. Chi, Y., Zhang, Zh.,Gao, J., Xie, Z., Zhao, M., Wang, E., 2019, Evaluating landscape ecological sensitivity of an estuarine island based on landscape pattern across temporal and spatial scales, Ecological Indicators 101, 221- 237.
  11. Congalton, R.G., (1991). A review of assessing the accuracy of classifcations of remotely sensed data, Remote Sensing of Environment, 37, 35-46.
  12. De Groot, R.S., Alkemade, R., Braat, L., Hein, L., and Willemen, L. 2010. Challenges in integrating the concept of ecosystem services and values in landscape planning, management and decision making. Ecological complexity, 7: 3. 260-272.
  13. Droogers, P., Allen, R.G., 2002. Estimating reference evapotranspiration under inaccurate data conditions. Irrigation and drainage systems 16, 33-45.
  14. Du Y, Teillet PM, Cihlar J. (2002). Radiometric normalization of multitemporal high-resolutionsatellite images with quality control for land cover change detection. Remote sensing of Environment, 82(1): 123-134.
  15. FAO. 2014. ⟨http://data.fao.org/measure? entryId¼afb484eb-3a92-4b22-b657 a4c575ae52b1&tab¼metadata⟩(accessed 25/08/14).
  16. Feng, Y., Yang, Q., Tong, X., Chen, L., 2018. Evaluating land ecological security and examining its relationships with driving factors using GIS and generalized additive model. Sci. Total Environ. 633, 1469-1479.
  17. Grimm, N.B., Faeth, S.H., Golubiewski, N.E., Redman, C.L., Wu, J., Bai, X., Briggs, J.M., Grimm, N.B., Faeth, S.H., Golubiewski, N.E., Redman, C.L., Wu, J., Bal, X., Briggs, J.M., 2015. Global Change and the Ecology of Cities. Science 319, 756–760. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1150195
  18. Guo, Z.W.(2001). To build the early warning and maintaining system of nationalecological security. Science and Technology Review 1, 54–56, in Chinese.
  19. Haines-Young, R., Potschin, M. and Kienast, F., 2012. Indicators of ecosystem service potential at European scales: mapping marginal changes and trade-offs. Ecological Indicators. 21, 39-53.
  20. Hamel, P., &Guswa, A. J. (2015). Uncertainty analysis of a spatially explicit annual water-balance model: Case study of the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19(2), 839–853.
  21. Hao, H., Bin, Ch., Zhiyuan, M., Zhenghua, L., Senlin, Zh.,weiwei, Y., Jianji, L., Wenjia, H., Jianguo, D., Guangcheng, Ch.(2017). Assessing the ecological security of the estuary in view of the ecological serviceseA case study of the Xiamen Estuary, Ocean & Coastal Management, 137, 12-23.
  22. Hu, M., Li, Zh, Yuan, M, Fan, Ch., Xia, B., 2019, Spatial differentiation of ecological security and differentiated management of ecological conservation in the Pearl River Delta, China, Ecological Indicators, 104, 439- 448.
  23. Jie X., Yu, X. Na, L. &Hao W. A.N.G. Spatial and temporal patterns of supply and demand balance of water supply services in the Dongjiang Lake Basin and its beneficiary areas. Journal of resources and ecology, 2015; 6(6), 386-396.
  24. Kindu, M., Schneider, T., Teketay, D. and Knoke, T., 2016. Changes of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover dynamics in Munessa–Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands. Science of The Total Environment. 547, 137-147.
  25. Lang, Y., Song, W., & Deng, X. Projected land use changes impacts on water yields in the karst mountain areas of China. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 2017.
  26. Li, J.H., Chen, Y.N., Xu, Ch.Ch., Li, Zh., 2019. Evaluation and analysis of ecological security in arid areas of Central Asia based on the emergy ecological footprint (EEF) model, Journal of Cleaner Production 235, 664-677.
  27. Li, R.Q., Dong, M., Cui, J.Y., Zhang, L.L., Cui, Q.G. and He, W.M., 2007. Quantification of the impact of land-use changes on ecosystem services: a case study in Pingbian County, China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 128(1-3), 503-510.
  28. Li, S., Xiao, W., Zhao, Y., Lv, X., 2020, Incorporating ecological risk index in the multi-process MCRE model to optimize the ecological security pattern in a semi-arid area with intensive coal mining: A case study in northern China, , Journal of Cleaner Production, 247, 119143.
  29. Li, Z.X., Xu, L.Y. (2010). Evaluation indicators for urban ecological security based onecological network analysis. Procedia Environ. Sci. 2, 1393–1399.
  30. Li, Zh., Yuan, M., Hu, M., Wang, Y., Xia, B., 2019, Evaluation of ecological security and influencing factors analysis based on robustness analysis and the BP-DEMALTE model: A case study of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, Ecological Indicators, 101, 595- 602.
  31. Lillesand T, Kiefer RW, Chipman J. (2014). Remotesensing and image interpretation. John Wiley &Sons, 704 pp.
  32. Liquete C., Maes, J., La Notte A., &Bidoglio G. Securing water as a resource for society: an ecosystem services perspective. Ecohydrology& Hydrobiology, 2011; 11(3-4), 247-259.
  33. Liu, P., Jia, Sh., Han, R., Zhang, H., 2018, Landscape Pattern and Ecological Security Assessment and Prediction Using Remote Sensing Approach, Journal of Sensors Volume 2018, Article ID 1058513, 14 pages https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/1058513
  34. Liu, Y., Song, W., & Mu, F. Changes in ecosystem services associated with planting structures of cropland: A case study in Minle County in China. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 2017; 102, 10-20.
  35. Lu, Sh., Tang, X., Guan, X., Qin, F., Liu, X., Zhang, D., 2020, The assessment of forest ecological security and its determining indicators: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China, , Journal of Environmental Management, 258, 110048 .
  36. Ma, L., Bo, J., Li, X., Fang, F., Cheng, W., 2019, Identifying key landscape pattern indices influencing the ecological security of inland river basin: The middle and lower reaches of Shule River Basin as an example, Science of the Total Environment 674 (2019) 424–438. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.107
  37. MacMillan, R.A., Moon, D.E., Coup_e, R.A., 2007. Automated predictive ecological mapping in a Forest Region of B.C., Canada, 2001e2005. Geoderma 140 (4), 353e373. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2007.04.027.
  38. Marquès, M., Bangash, R. F., Kumar, V., Schuhmacher, M., & Sharp, R. (2013). The impact of climate change on water provision under a low flow regime: A case study of the ecosystems services in the Francoli river basin. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 263(1), 224-232.
  39. Mcdonald, R.I., Kareiva, P., Forman, R.T.T., 2008. The implications of current and future urbanization for global protected areas and biodiversity conservation. Biol. Conserv. 141, 1695–1703. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.04.025
  40. Mitsova D, Shuster W, Wang X. (2011). A cellular automata model of land cover change to integrateurban growth with open space conservation. Landscape and Urban Planning, 99(2): 141-153.
  41. Nachtergaele, F., Van Velthuizen, H., Verelst, L., Batjes, N., Dijkshoorn, K., Van Engelen, V., Fischer, G., Jones, A., Montanarella, L., Petri, M., 2008. Harmonized world soil database. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
  42. Pasgaard, M. Van Hecken, G. Ehammer, A. Strange, N. (2017). Unfolding scientific expertise and security in the changing governance of Ecosystem Services, Geoforum, 84 (2017) 354–367.
  43. Paudyal, K., Baral, H., Putzel, L., Bhandari, S. and Keenan, R. (2017). Change In Land Use And Ecosystem Services Delivery From Community-Based Forest Landscape Restoration In The Phewa Lake Watershed, Nepal. International Forestry Review. 19, 88-101.
  44. Peng, J., Yang, Y., Liu, Y.X., Hu, Y.N., Du, Y.Y., Meersmans, J., Qiu, S.J., 2018b. Linking ecosystem services and circuit theory to identify ecological security patterns. Sci. Total Environ. 644, 781e790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.292.
  45. Peng, J., Zhao, S.Q., Dong, J.Q., Liu, Y.X., Meersmans, J., Li, H.L., Wu, J.S., 2019. Applying ant colony algorithm to identify ecological security patterns in megacities. Environ. Model. Softw 117, 214e222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.017.
  46. Qin, K., Liu, J., Yan, L., Huang, H., 2019, Integrating ecosystem services flows into water security simulations in water scarce areas: Present and future, Science of Total Environment, 670, 1037- 1048.
  47. Rasuly, A & et al (2013). Simulation of land use/cover change dynamics in future based on Markov-CA model, ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 2: 1-13.
  48. Richards JA, Richards J. (2013). Remote sensingdigital image analysis, vol 3. Springer, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-30062-2
  49. Ritchie, M., Debba, P., Lück-Vogel, M., &Goodall, V. (2018). Assessment of accuracy: systematic reduction of training points for maximum likelihood classification and mixture discriminant analysis (Gaussian and t-distribution). South African Journal of Geomatics, 7(2), 132-146.
  50. Sánchezcanales, M., et al. (2012). Sensitivity analysis of ecosystem service valuation in a Mediterranean watershed. Science of the Total Environment, 440, 140–153.
  51. Seto, K.C., Guneralp, B., Hutyra, L.R., 2012. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109, 16083–16088. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211658109
  52. Sharp, R., Tallis, H.T., Ricketts, T.,Guerry, A.D., Wood, S.A., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Nelson, E., Ennaanay, D.,Wolny, S., Olwero, N., and Vigerstol, K.2014. InVEST user’s guide. The NaturalCapital Project, Stanford. 161p.
  53. Smith, E. J. The balance between public water supply and environmental needs. Water and Environment Journal, 1997; 11(1), 8-13.
  54. Sun S., Sun G., Cohen E., McNulty S.G., Caldwell P.V., Duan K. & Zhang Y. Projecting water yield and ecosystem productivity across the United States by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate data. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2016; 20(2), 935.
  55. Tao J.I.N., Xiaoyu Q. &Liyan H. Changes in grain production and the optimal spatial allocation of water resources in China. Journal of resources and ecology, 2016; 7(1), 28-35.
  56. TengM,Wu C, Zhou Z, Lord E, Zheng Z (2011)Multipurpose greenway planning for changing cities: a framework integrating priorities and a least-cost path model. Landsc Urban Plan 103:1–14.
  57. Tolessa, T., Senbeta, F. and Kidane, M. (2017). The impact of land use/land cover change on ecosystem services in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Ecosystem services. 23, 47-54.
  58. Wang Y, Mitchell BR, Nugranad-Marzilli J, Bonynge G, Zhou Y, Shriver G. (2009). Remote sensing of land-cover change and landscape context of the National Parks: A case study of the Northeast Temperate Network. Remote Sensing of Environment, 113(7): 1453-1461.
  59. Wang, H., Qin, F., Zhang, X., 2019, A spatial exploring model for urban land ecological security based on a modified artificial bee colony algorithm, Ecological Informatics 50 (2019)51 – 61.
  60. Wang, Y., Pan, J., 2019. Building ecological security patterns based on ecosystem services value reconstruction in an arid inland basin: A case study in Ganzhou District, NW China, Journal of Cleaner Production 24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118337
  61. Wu J, Zhang L, Peng J, Feng Z, Liu H, He S (2013) The integrated recognition of the source area of the urban ecological security pattern in Shenzhen. ActaEcolSinica 33:4125–4133.
  62. Wu, X., Liu, Sh., Sun, Y., An, Y., Dong, Sh., Liu, G., 2019, Ecological security evaluation based on entropy matter-element model: A case study of Kunming city, southwest China, Ecological Indicators, 102, 469- 478.
  63. Yang, Q., Liu, G., Hao, Y., Coscieme, L., Zhang, J., Jiang, N., Casazza, M., Giannetti, B.F., 2018. Quantitative analysis of the dynamic changes of ecological security in the provinces of China through emergy-ecological footprint hybrid indicators. J. Clean. Prod. 184, 678-695.
  64. Yang, X., Zhou, Z., Li, J., Fu, X., Mu, X., & Li, T. Trade-offs between carbon sequestration, soil retention and water yield in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016; 26(10), 1449-1462.
  65. Yang, Y., Cai, Z., 2020, Ecological security assessment of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration based on an adapted ecological footprint model, Journal of Cleaner Production, 260, 120973.
  66. Yu K (1995) Security Patterns in Landscape Planning: With a Case in South China. Dissertation, Harvard University.
  67. Yu K (1996) Security patterns and surface model in landscape ecological planning. Landsc Urban Plan 36:1–17.
  68. Yu K, Li D, Li N (2006) The evolution of greenways in China. Landsc Urban Plan 76:223–239.
  69. Zhang, L.Q., Peng, J., Liu, Y.X.,Wu, J.S., 2017. Coupling ecosystem services supply and human ecological demand to identify landscape ecological security pattern: a case study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China. Urban Ecosyst. 20 (3), 701e714. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-016-0629-y.
  70. Zhang, Y.J., Yu, B.Y., Ashraf, M.A., 2015. Ecological security pattern for the landscape of mesoscale and microscale land: a case study of the Harbin city center. J. Environ. Eng. Landsc. Manag. 23 (3), 192-201. https://doi.org/10.3846/16486897.2015.1036872.
  71. Zhao, Y. Z., Zou, X. Y., Cheng, H., Jia, H. K., Wu, Y. Q., Wang, G. Y., et al., 2006. Assessing the ecological security of the Tibetan plateau: Methodology and a case study for Lhaze County. Journal of Environmental Management, 80(2), 120–131. https:// doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.08.019.
  72. Zhaoxue, L. Linyu X. (2010). Evaluation indicators for urban ecological security based on ecological network analysis. International Society for Environmental Information Sciences 2010 Annual Conference. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2 .pp 1399–393.
  73. Zhou, C.X., Shen, W.S. (2003). Research progress of ecological security. RuralEco-Environ. 19 (1), 56–59 (in Chinese).