Modelling the vulnerability of urban buildings  Using Delphi and AHP methods in GIS - Case study: Region 6 of Tehran municipality

Ebrahimian GhaJary, Yasser; Alesheikh, Ali Asghar; Modiri, Mahdi; Hosnavi, Reza; Abbasi, Morteza

doi:10.22131/sepehr.2014.12859

Modelling the vulnerability of urban buildings Using Delphi and AHP methods in GIS - Case study: Region 6 of Tehran municipality

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Yasser Ebrahimian GhaJary

Ali Asghar Alesheikh

Mahdi Modiri

Reza Hosnavi

Morteza Abbasi

10.22131/sepehr.2014.12859

Abstract

Throughout the history, cities have neverbeen safe due to the damages caused by human and natural disasters. So that inthe past, the cities were the war’s last target, but now with the development of technology, those hindrances have turned into the first wartargets. In fact, what poses war andair raids as a threat, is just the problem ofencountering it and being. One major way to prepare facing such threats, is the knowledge about the degree of its vulnerability whenthey occur. So, it depends on taking up some methodsto diminish the vulnerability instability. Whatthe researchers were looking for, was the modelling the vulnerabilityof the city buildings (one of the most important urbancomponent) in one part of theTehran (region 6 of Tehran municipality). Since vulnerability is made upof various criteria, so the proposed model in this researchis a kind of multi-criteria model (multi attribute decisionmodel), and according to the spatial essence of the criteria, this model has been carried out in GIS (MCDM-GISmodel). Delphi method has been used to survey major vulnerabilityfactors with the help of urban passive defense, structure, andarchitecture experts. The modelling of the 9 criteria has resulted throughAnalytic Hierarchical Process (AHP), and it shows that about 38percent of building has low vulnerability, about 60 percent has mediumvulnerability and 2 percent has high vulnerability (over 60 percent of buildingshas plus-average vulnerability) which shows the necessity for taking actions in order todecrease vulnerability through passive defense.

Keywords

City

PhysicalVulnerability

Delphi

Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP)

geographic information system (GIS)