عنوان مقاله [English]
Drought is one of the most important natural hazards that works in a slow and creeping way. This phenomenon is due to climatic processes, and its severity and frequency depend to a certain extent on the geographical position of the site, which happens every few years as a result of falling precipitation. In order to study and assess the droughts and wet years of Khoy station, the precipitation data of 32 years (1976-2007) were analyzed using standard distribution index and SPSS and Excel software, and it was found that the most severe drought in Khoy station has been in 1995 with an SPI coefficient of more than -1.6, and in 2001 with an SPI coefficient of more than -1.4, while its highest rate of wet year has happened in 1982 with an SPI coefficient of more than 2.8.
Of noteworthy points about the continuity and sequence of droughts is the occurrence of severe droughts during the years 1995-2001 with varying degrees in this station. In order to predict the climatic condition of the Khoy station in the long run, the Markov chain model was used, which suggested that the probability of droughts was 43% and the probability of occurrence of wet years was 42.7%. In other cases, meaning 14.3% of the time, the normal condition of precipitation is prevailing. Similarly, the likelihood of droughts in the long run in winter, spring and autumn was estimated 41.8, 30.5 and 57.3 per cent, respectively.