شهر مشهد در پهنهای با میزان آسیبپذیری بالا قرار گرفته است که وجود 3894 هکتار سکونتگاه غیررسمی در این شهر، بر میزان این آسیبپذیری افزوده است. لذا در این پژوهش، با رویکرد توصیفی_تحلیلی و با استفاده از روشWLC، FUZZY و AHP ابتدا میزان تابآوری محلات حاشیه نشین شهر مشهد ارزیابی شده است و سپس با استفاده از آمار فضایی، الگوی تابآوری در این محلات مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از کاربرد شاخص موران در توزیع فضایی تابآوری اجتماعی، نشان میدهد که این ضریب مثبت و برابر 18/0است. در واقع این مقدار، خوشهای بودن توزیع فضایی تابآوری اجتماعی در محلات حاشیه نشین شهر را نشان میدهد. تحلیل آماره G نشان میدهد که خوشههای با تابآوری اجتماعی بالا درکنار یکدیگر قرار دارند و از الگوی خوشهای باتمرکز بالا پیروی میکنند. یعنی بلوکهایی با ناکارآمدی زیاد یا کم در مجاورت یکدیگر قرار دارند. خوشههای گرم و نسبتا گرم حدود 41 درصد از مساحت کل محلات حاشیه نشین را شامل میشوند که 31 محله از شهر مشهد را تشکیل دادهاند. همچنین مدلسازی عوامل موثر بر تابآوری اجتماعی محلات دارای بافت ناکارامد شهر مشهد با استفاده از رگرسیون وزنی جغرافیایی (GWR) نشان داد که متغیرهای درصد جمعیت شاغل، درصد جمعیت فعال و میانگین سنی بر تابآوری اجتماعی محلات مورد مطالعه اثرگذاری بیشتری دارند. از اینرو میتوان این متغیرها را مبنای علمی برای افزایش تابآوری اجتماعی این محلات در روند احیای آنها دانست. به گونه ای که با ایجاد فرصتهای شغلی و جذب جمعیت فعال و جوان، در راستای افزایش تابآوری اجتماعی محلات گام برداشت.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Spatial analysis of social resilience in suburbs of Mashhad based on multi-criteria spatial decision support system (MC-SDSS)
More than 55% of the world's population now lives in cities, while around one billion people worldwide living in informal settlements. The city of Mashhad, as the second metropolis of Iran, has not been deprived of the phenomenon of marginalization and despite 3894 hectares of informal settlements is the second city in Iran in terms of the size of such settlements. Informal settlements in the city are less resilient than other parts of the city, mainly due to their distinct social and physical characteristics. Some argue are focusing only on physical factors of resilient, but this is not possible without considering the social factors and social and demographic characteristics of communities. if society is prepared to deal with that crisis, a large volume of disturbances and irregularities after the crisis will be reduced. Since the approach of sustainable urban regeneration in Mashhad has started since 2019 with the establishment of facilitation offices and considering that these offices emphasize the social dimension of regeneration and the participation of local community in this process, therefore, the results of the present study can be effective in this way. Therefore, this study aims to find the answers to the following questions with the aim of spatial analysis of social resilience in the suburbs of the city:
How is the social resilience of the suburbs in Mashhad?
How is the spatial pattern of social resilience in Mashhad?
Since the present study tries to analyze social resilience in the suburbs of Mashhad by using MCDM methods in the framework of urban resilience criteria, it has used descriptive-analytical method in the form of an applied research. For this purpose, based on library studies (articles, books, reports, and various documents), the required information in the field of social equity was collected. Then, by examining the dimensions and frameworks of social resilience, its criteria were determined and operationally defined. In this research, IDRISI software has been used to analyze the research data and evaluate them. Spatial statistics tools in ArcGIS software have been used to analyze the relationship between inefficiency distribution. Inefficiency pattern analysis is also performed by spatial autocorrelation technique. For this purpose, there are different models for measuring spatial autocorrelation statistics, among which the global Moran model and Gi statistic have been used. Spatial modeling of factors affecting inefficiency has been done by geographical weight regression.
Discussion and results
Since there are 3894 hectares of informal settlements in Mashhad and due to the fact that these settlements have been formed over time and without regard to urban planning standards, so they are very sensitive to natural and unnatural hazards and in case of any crisis, returning to pre-accident conditions is important. There are several factors involved in this field, including physical, economic, and social factors. The outcome of all these dimensions will affect the return of these settlements to pre-crisis conditions. Meanwhile, a review of studies on resilience showed that the physical dimension of resilience has been emphasized more than its social dimension. In the current situation of a metropolis such as Mashhad, an important part of the population and area of Mashhad is its suburbs, which includes 66 neighborhoods with a population of nearly one million people and an area of 3894 hectares. If we consider the city as an integrated system, it should be said that other dimensions of resilience, including social resilience, will also affect other sectors, including the physical one.
Analysis of WLC, AHP and FUZZY methods, which were used in this study to evaluate the resilience of marginalized neighborhoods, showed that neighborhoods located in the northeast of Mashhad have more resilience than other areas, while the eastern and southeastern areas are less resilient. The social resilience pattern of these neighborhoods was evaluated by using the global Moran method and G general statistics. The results of this study showed that this zoning in the northeast and southeast is not random and has a spatial autocorrelation, so that in the northeast of the cluster of resilient neighborhoods, has led to increased resilience of other neighborhoods and in the southeast, low resilience has affected its reduction in adjacent areas. Warm and relatively warm clusters make up 1631 hectares of suburban areas, which is estimated to be equivalent to 42% of these neighborhoods. In fact, 31 neighborhoods in the suburbs of Mashhad are in hot and relatively hot clusters. The pattern of resilience is not significant elsewhere. Also, modeling the criteria studied in the study showed that the percentage of employed population, percentage of active population and average age have a significant effect on social resilience. According to the results of the leading research, in the process of re-creation that is taking place in the city of Mashhad, there should be a special look at the social dimensions of neighborhoods because the promotion of these dimensions can affect other aspects of resilience. Also, considering the impact of employment on the rate of resilience, it is suggested that in the process of recreating marginalized neighborhoods, special attention must be paid to job creation in these neighborhoods.